Fidelity Advisor Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

Fidelity Advisor Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fidelity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidelity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidelity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A four-period moving average forecast model for Fidelity Advisor Dividend is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Fidelity Advisor 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Fidelity Advisor Dividend on the next trading day is expected to be 22.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.93.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelity Advisor mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelity Advisor mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Fidelity Advisor. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Fidelity Advisor Dividend and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Fidelity Advisor

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Advisor Dividend. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 22.59 22.59 22.59 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 21.02 21.02 24.85 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 22.59 22.59 22.59 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fidelity Advisor. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fidelity Advisor's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fidelity Advisor's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fidelity Advisor Dividend.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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