First Steamship (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.65
| 2601 Stock | TWD 7.74 0.06 0.77% |
First |
First Steamship Target Price Odds to finish below 7.65
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 7.65 or more in 90 days |
| 7.74 | 90 days | 7.65 | about 11.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Steamship to drop to NT$ 7.65 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.61 (This First Steamship Co probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Steamship price to stay between NT$ 7.65 and its current price of NT$7.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon First Steamship has a beta of 0.15. This suggests as returns on the market go up, First Steamship average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Steamship Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Steamship Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. First Steamship Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Steamship
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Steamship. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Steamship's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Steamship Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Steamship is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Steamship's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Steamship Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Steamship within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
First Steamship Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Steamship for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Steamship can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Steamship generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| First Steamship has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 4.93 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 152.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. First Steamship has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist First Steamship until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, First Steamship's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like First Steamship sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for First to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about First Steamship's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 12.0% of First Steamship shares are owned by insiders or employees |
First Steamship Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Steamship's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Steamship's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 824.8 M |
First Steamship Technical Analysis
First Steamship's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Steamship Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Steamship Predictive Forecast Models
First Steamship's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Steamship's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Steamship's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Steamship
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Steamship for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Steamship help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Steamship generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| First Steamship has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 4.93 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 152.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. First Steamship has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist First Steamship until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, First Steamship's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like First Steamship sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for First to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about First Steamship's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 12.0% of First Steamship shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Check out First Steamship Backtesting, First Steamship Valuation, First Steamship Correlation, First Steamship Hype Analysis, First Steamship Volatility, First Steamship History as well as First Steamship Performance. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Steamship's price analysis, check to measure First Steamship's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Steamship is operating at the current time. Most of First Steamship's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Steamship's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Steamship's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Steamship to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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