Asefa Public (Thailand) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.92
| ASEFA Stock | THB 3.90 0.02 0.52% |
Asefa |
Asefa Public Target Price Odds to finish below 3.92
The tendency of Asefa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 3.92 after 90 days |
| 3.90 | 90 days | 3.92 | about 75.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asefa Public to stay under 3.92 after 90 days from now is about 75.91 (This Asefa Public probability density function shows the probability of Asefa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Asefa Public price to stay between its current price of 3.90 and 3.92 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.7 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Asefa Public has a beta of -0.0495. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Asefa Public are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Asefa Public is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Asefa Public has an alpha of 0.0206, implying that it can generate a 0.0206 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Asefa Public Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Asefa Public
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asefa Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Asefa Public's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Asefa Public Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asefa Public is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asefa Public's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asefa Public, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asefa Public within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Asefa Public Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Asefa Public for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Asefa Public can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Asefa Public Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asefa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asefa Public's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asefa Public's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 545.6 M |
Asefa Public Technical Analysis
Asefa Public's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asefa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asefa Public. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asefa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Asefa Public Predictive Forecast Models
Asefa Public's time-series forecasting models is one of many Asefa Public's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asefa Public's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Asefa Public
Checking the ongoing alerts about Asefa Public for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Asefa Public help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Asefa Public Backtesting, Asefa Public Valuation, Asefa Public Correlation, Asefa Public Hype Analysis, Asefa Public Volatility, Asefa Public History as well as Asefa Public Performance. Note that the Asefa Public information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Asefa Public's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Asefa Stock analysis
When running Asefa Public's price analysis, check to measure Asefa Public's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Asefa Public is operating at the current time. Most of Asefa Public's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Asefa Public's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Asefa Public's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Asefa Public to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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