Costain Group (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 143.5
| COST Stock | 155.40 1.20 0.77% |
Costain |
Costain Group Target Price Odds to finish below 143.5
The tendency of Costain Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 143.50 or more in 90 days |
| 155.40 | 90 days | 143.50 | about 81.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Costain Group to drop to 143.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 81.22 (This Costain Group PLC probability density function shows the probability of Costain Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Costain Group PLC price to stay between 143.50 and its current price of 155.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Costain Group PLC has a beta of -0.26 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Costain Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Costain Group PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Costain Group PLC has an alpha of 0.7114, implying that it can generate a 0.71 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Costain Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Costain Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Costain Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Costain Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Costain Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Costain Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Costain Group PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Costain Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.32 |
Costain Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Costain Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Costain Group PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Costain Group PLC is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Costain is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Costain Group Reaches New 12-Month High - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
Costain Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Costain Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Costain Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Costain Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 274.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 158.5 M |
Costain Group Technical Analysis
Costain Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Costain Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Costain Group PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Costain Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Costain Group Predictive Forecast Models
Costain Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Costain Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Costain Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Costain Group PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Costain Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Costain Group PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Costain Group PLC is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Costain is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Costain Group Reaches New 12-Month High - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
Additional Tools for Costain Stock Analysis
When running Costain Group's price analysis, check to measure Costain Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Costain Group is operating at the current time. Most of Costain Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Costain Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Costain Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Costain Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.