Greif Bros Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 77.5
| GEF Stock | USD 61.28 0.74 1.19% |
Closest to current price Greif long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Greif |
Greif Bros Target Price Odds to finish over 77.5
The tendency of Greif Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 77.50 or more in 90 days |
| 61.28 | 90 days | 77.50 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Greif Bros to move over $ 77.50 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Greif Bros probability density function shows the probability of Greif Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Greif Bros price to stay between its current price of $ 61.28 and $ 77.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.25 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.01 . This usually indicates Greif Bros market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Greif Bros is expected to follow. Additionally Greif Bros has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Greif Bros Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Greif Bros
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Greif Bros. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Greif Bros' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Greif Bros Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Greif Bros is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Greif Bros' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Greif Bros, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Greif Bros within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Greif Bros Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Greif Bros for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Greif Bros can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Greif Bros generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 1st of April 2024 Greif Bros paid $ 0.52 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Greif, Inc. Announces 2024 Second Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Dates |
Greif Bros Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Greif Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Greif Bros' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Greif Bros' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 180.9 M |
Greif Bros Technical Analysis
Greif Bros' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Greif Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Greif Bros. In general, you should focus on analyzing Greif Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Greif Bros Predictive Forecast Models
Greif Bros' time-series forecasting models is one of many Greif Bros' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Greif Bros' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Greif Bros
Checking the ongoing alerts about Greif Bros for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Greif Bros help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Greif Bros generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 1st of April 2024 Greif Bros paid $ 0.52 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Greif, Inc. Announces 2024 Second Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call Dates |
Check out Greif Bros Backtesting, Greif Bros Valuation, Greif Bros Correlation, Greif Bros Hype Analysis, Greif Bros Volatility, Greif Bros History as well as Greif Bros Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Greif Stock please use our How to Invest in Greif Bros guide.Note that the Greif Bros information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Greif Bros' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Complementary Tools for Greif Stock analysis
When running Greif Bros' price analysis, check to measure Greif Bros' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Greif Bros is operating at the current time. Most of Greif Bros' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Greif Bros' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Greif Bros' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Greif Bros to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Greif Bros' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Greif Bros. If investors know Greif will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Greif Bros listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Dividend Share 2.06 | Earnings Share 5.78 | Revenue Per Share 109.793 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Greif Bros is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Greif that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Greif Bros' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Greif Bros' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Greif Bros' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Greif Bros' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Greif Bros' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Greif Bros is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Greif Bros' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.