Perdana Gapura (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 86.0
| GPRA Stock | IDR 89.00 4.00 4.71% |
Perdana |
Perdana Gapura Target Price Odds to finish below 86.0
The tendency of Perdana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 86.00 or more in 90 days |
| 89.00 | 90 days | 86.00 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Perdana Gapura to drop to 86.00 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Perdana Gapura Prima probability density function shows the probability of Perdana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Perdana Gapura Prima price to stay between 86.00 and its current price of 89.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.28 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Perdana Gapura Prima has a beta of -0.1. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Perdana Gapura are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Perdana Gapura Prima is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Perdana Gapura Prima has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Perdana Gapura Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Perdana Gapura
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perdana Gapura Prima. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perdana Gapura's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Perdana Gapura Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Perdana Gapura is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Perdana Gapura's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Perdana Gapura Prima, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Perdana Gapura within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.99 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Perdana Gapura Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Perdana Gapura for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Perdana Gapura Prima can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Perdana Gapura Prima generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 82.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Perdana Gapura Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Perdana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Perdana Gapura's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Perdana Gapura's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 63.3 B |
Perdana Gapura Technical Analysis
Perdana Gapura's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Perdana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Perdana Gapura Prima. In general, you should focus on analyzing Perdana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Perdana Gapura Predictive Forecast Models
Perdana Gapura's time-series forecasting models is one of many Perdana Gapura's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Perdana Gapura's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Perdana Gapura Prima
Checking the ongoing alerts about Perdana Gapura for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Perdana Gapura Prima help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Perdana Gapura Prima generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 82.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Perdana Gapura Backtesting, Perdana Gapura Valuation, Perdana Gapura Correlation, Perdana Gapura Hype Analysis, Perdana Gapura Volatility, Perdana Gapura History as well as Perdana Gapura Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Perdana Stock analysis
When running Perdana Gapura's price analysis, check to measure Perdana Gapura's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Perdana Gapura is operating at the current time. Most of Perdana Gapura's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Perdana Gapura's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Perdana Gapura's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Perdana Gapura to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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