ITUB4F (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 34.5
| ITUB4F Stock | BRL 35.50 0.30 0.85% |
ITUB4F |
ITUB4F Target Price Odds to finish over 34.5
The tendency of ITUB4F Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above R$ 34.50 in 90 days |
| 35.50 | 90 days | 34.50 | about 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ITUB4F to stay above R$ 34.50 in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This ITUB4F probability density function shows the probability of ITUB4F Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ITUB4F price to stay between R$ 34.50 and its current price of R$35.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.56 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ITUB4F has a beta of 0.0594. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, ITUB4F average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ITUB4F will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ITUB4F has an alpha of 0.0221, implying that it can generate a 0.0221 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ITUB4F Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ITUB4F
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ITUB4F. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ITUB4F Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ITUB4F is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ITUB4F's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ITUB4F, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ITUB4F within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
ITUB4F Technical Analysis
ITUB4F's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ITUB4F Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ITUB4F. In general, you should focus on analyzing ITUB4F Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ITUB4F Predictive Forecast Models
ITUB4F's time-series forecasting models is one of many ITUB4F's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ITUB4F's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ITUB4F in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ITUB4F's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ITUB4F options trading.
Other Information on Investing in ITUB4F Stock
ITUB4F financial ratios help investors to determine whether ITUB4F Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ITUB4F with respect to the benefits of owning ITUB4F security.