Mainstay Servative Allocation Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 13.46

MCKIX Fund  USD 12.26  0.01  0.08%   
Mainstay Conservative's future price is the expected price of Mainstay Conservative instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mainstay Servative Allocation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Mainstay Conservative Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Mainstay Conservative Correlation, Mainstay Conservative Hype Analysis, Mainstay Conservative Volatility, Mainstay Conservative History as well as Mainstay Conservative Performance.
  
Please specify Mainstay Conservative's target price for which you would like Mainstay Conservative odds to be computed.

Mainstay Conservative Target Price Odds to finish over 13.46

The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 13.46  or more in 90 days
 12.26 90 days 13.46 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Conservative to move over $ 13.46  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mainstay Servative Allocation probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Conservative price to stay between its current price of $ 12.26  and $ 13.46  at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.51 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Conservative has a beta of 0.34. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mainstay Conservative average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mainstay Servative Allocation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mainstay Servative Allocation has an alpha of 0.0543, implying that it can generate a 0.0543 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Mainstay Conservative Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mainstay Conservative

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Conservative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.9012.2612.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.7911.1513.49
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.8312.1912.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
12.2012.2612.32
Details

Mainstay Conservative Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Conservative is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Conservative's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Servative Allocation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Conservative within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.34
σ
Overall volatility
0.25
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Mainstay Conservative Technical Analysis

Mainstay Conservative's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Servative Allocation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mainstay Conservative Predictive Forecast Models

Mainstay Conservative's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Conservative's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Conservative's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mainstay Conservative in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mainstay Conservative's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mainstay Conservative options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund

Mainstay Conservative financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Conservative security.
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