Movida Participaes (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.42
| MOVI3 Stock | BRL 7.06 0.26 3.55% |
Movida |
Movida Participaes Target Price Odds to finish below 7.42
The tendency of Movida Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 7.42 after 90 days |
| 7.06 | 90 days | 7.42 | about 6.92 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Movida Participaes to stay under R$ 7.42 after 90 days from now is about 6.92 (This Movida Participaes SA probability density function shows the probability of Movida Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Movida Participaes price to stay between its current price of R$ 7.06 and R$ 7.42 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Movida Participaes has a beta of 0.69. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Movida Participaes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Movida Participaes SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Movida Participaes SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Movida Participaes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Movida Participaes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Movida Participaes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Movida Participaes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Movida Participaes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Movida Participaes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Movida Participaes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Movida Participaes SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Movida Participaes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.49 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Movida Participaes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Movida Participaes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Movida Participaes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Movida Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Movida Participaes has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 14.01 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 136.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Movida Participaes has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Movida Participaes until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Movida Participaes' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Movida Participaes sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Movida to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Movida Participaes' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Movida Participaes SA has accumulated about 110.14 M in cash with (8.27 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.1. | |
| Roughly 65.0% of Movida Participaes outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Movida Participaes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Movida Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Movida Participaes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Movida Participaes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 361.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.8 B |
Movida Participaes Technical Analysis
Movida Participaes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Movida Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Movida Participaes SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Movida Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Movida Participaes Predictive Forecast Models
Movida Participaes' time-series forecasting models is one of many Movida Participaes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Movida Participaes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Movida Participaes
Checking the ongoing alerts about Movida Participaes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Movida Participaes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Movida Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Movida Participaes has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 14.01 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 136.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Movida Participaes has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Movida Participaes until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Movida Participaes' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Movida Participaes sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Movida to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Movida Participaes' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Movida Participaes SA has accumulated about 110.14 M in cash with (8.27 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.1. | |
| Roughly 65.0% of Movida Participaes outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Movida Participaes Backtesting, Movida Participaes Valuation, Movida Participaes Correlation, Movida Participaes Hype Analysis, Movida Participaes Volatility, Movida Participaes History as well as Movida Participaes Performance. Note that the Movida Participaes information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Movida Participaes' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Complementary Tools for Movida Stock analysis
When running Movida Participaes' price analysis, check to measure Movida Participaes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Movida Participaes is operating at the current time. Most of Movida Participaes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Movida Participaes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Movida Participaes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Movida Participaes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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