Picton Credit Opportunities Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 9.65
| PFCO Fund | 9.65 0.05 0.52% |
PICTON |
PICTON Credit Target Price Odds to finish over 9.65
The tendency of PICTON Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 9.65 | 90 days | 9.65 | nearly 4.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PICTON Credit to move above the current price in 90 days from now is nearly 4.25 (This PICTON Credit Opportunities probability density function shows the probability of PICTON Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PICTON Credit Opportunities has a beta of -0.0909 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PICTON Credit are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PICTON Credit Opportunities is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PICTON Credit Opportunities has an alpha of 0.0536, implying that it can generate a 0.0536 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PICTON Credit Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PICTON Credit
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PICTON Credit Opport. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PICTON Credit Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PICTON Credit is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PICTON Credit's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PICTON Credit Opportunities, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PICTON Credit within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
PICTON Credit Technical Analysis
PICTON Credit's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PICTON Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PICTON Credit Opportunities. In general, you should focus on analyzing PICTON Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PICTON Credit Predictive Forecast Models
PICTON Credit's time-series forecasting models is one of many PICTON Credit's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PICTON Credit's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PICTON Credit in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PICTON Credit's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PICTON Credit options trading.
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