Polisan Holding (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.2
| POLHO Stock | TRY 13.39 0.31 2.37% |
Polisan |
Polisan Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 13.2
The tendency of Polisan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 13.20 or more in 90 days |
| 13.39 | 90 days | 13.20 | about 16.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Polisan Holding to drop to 13.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 16.34 (This Polisan Holding AS probability density function shows the probability of Polisan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Polisan Holding AS price to stay between 13.20 and its current price of 13.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Polisan Holding has a beta of 0.0882 indicating as returns on the market go up, Polisan Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Polisan Holding AS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Polisan Holding AS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Polisan Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Polisan Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Polisan Holding AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Polisan Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Polisan Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Polisan Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Polisan Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Polisan Holding AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Polisan Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.81 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Polisan Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Polisan Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Polisan Holding AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Polisan Holding AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Polisan Holding AS has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 71.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Polisan Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Polisan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Polisan Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Polisan Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 758.5 M |
Polisan Holding Technical Analysis
Polisan Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Polisan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Polisan Holding AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Polisan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Polisan Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Polisan Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Polisan Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Polisan Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Polisan Holding AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Polisan Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Polisan Holding AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Polisan Holding AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Polisan Holding AS has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 71.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Polisan Holding Backtesting, Polisan Holding Valuation, Polisan Holding Correlation, Polisan Holding Hype Analysis, Polisan Holding Volatility, Polisan Holding History as well as Polisan Holding Performance. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
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When running Polisan Holding's price analysis, check to measure Polisan Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Polisan Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Polisan Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Polisan Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Polisan Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Polisan Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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