Sleep Number Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.03
| SNBR Stock | USD 13.73 0.45 3.17% |
Closest to current price Sleep long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Sleep |
Sleep Number Target Price Odds to finish below 16.03
The tendency of Sleep Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 16.03 after 90 days |
| 13.73 | 90 days | 16.03 | about 88.95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sleep Number to stay under $ 16.03 after 90 days from now is about 88.95 (This Sleep Number Corp probability density function shows the probability of Sleep Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sleep Number Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 13.73 and $ 16.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.57 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.92 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Sleep Number will likely underperform. Additionally Sleep Number Corp has an alpha of 0.3096, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Sleep Number Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sleep Number
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sleep Number Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sleep Number's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sleep Number Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sleep Number is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sleep Number's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sleep Number Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sleep Number within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.31 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.92 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Sleep Number Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sleep Number for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sleep Number Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sleep Number Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Sleep Number Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Sleep Number Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company currently holds 972.65 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 210.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Sleep Number Corp has a current ratio of 0.21, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Sleep Number until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Sleep Number's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Sleep Number Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Sleep to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Sleep Number's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.89 B. Net Loss for the year was (15.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.2 B. | |
| Sleep Number Corp currently holds about 1.35 M in cash with (11.04 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. | |
| Over 87.0% of Sleep Number shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Sleep Number Corporation Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Sleep Number Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sleep Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sleep Number's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sleep Number's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 M |
Sleep Number Technical Analysis
Sleep Number's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sleep Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sleep Number Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sleep Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sleep Number Predictive Forecast Models
Sleep Number's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sleep Number's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sleep Number's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sleep Number Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sleep Number for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sleep Number Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sleep Number Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Sleep Number Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Sleep Number Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company currently holds 972.65 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 210.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Sleep Number Corp has a current ratio of 0.21, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Sleep Number until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Sleep Number's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Sleep Number Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Sleep to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Sleep Number's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.89 B. Net Loss for the year was (15.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.2 B. | |
| Sleep Number Corp currently holds about 1.35 M in cash with (11.04 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. | |
| Over 87.0% of Sleep Number shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Sleep Number Corporation Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Check out Sleep Number Backtesting, Sleep Number Valuation, Sleep Number Correlation, Sleep Number Hype Analysis, Sleep Number Volatility, Sleep Number History as well as Sleep Number Performance. Note that the Sleep Number Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Sleep Number's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Sleep Stock analysis
When running Sleep Number's price analysis, check to measure Sleep Number's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sleep Number is operating at the current time. Most of Sleep Number's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sleep Number's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sleep Number's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sleep Number to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Sleep Number's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sleep Number. If investors know Sleep will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sleep Number listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.98) | Earnings Share (1.52) | Revenue Per Share 81.463 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) | Return On Assets 0.0193 |
The market value of Sleep Number Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sleep that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sleep Number's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sleep Number's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sleep Number's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sleep Number's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sleep Number's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sleep Number is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sleep Number's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.