Trigano SA (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 144.0
| TRI Stock | EUR 145.80 1.00 0.69% |
Trigano |
Trigano SA Target Price Odds to finish below 144.0
The tendency of Trigano Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 144.00 or more in 90 days |
| 145.80 | 90 days | 144.00 | about 17.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trigano SA to drop to € 144.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.4 (This Trigano SA probability density function shows the probability of Trigano Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trigano SA price to stay between € 144.00 and its current price of €145.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.79 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Trigano SA has a beta of -0.45. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Trigano SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Trigano SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Trigano SA has an alpha of 0.051, implying that it can generate a 0.051 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Trigano SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Trigano SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trigano SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trigano SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trigano SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trigano SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trigano SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trigano SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trigano SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Trigano SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trigano SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trigano SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trigano SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Trigano SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trigano Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trigano SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trigano SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 447.4 M |
Trigano SA Technical Analysis
Trigano SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trigano Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trigano SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trigano Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trigano SA Predictive Forecast Models
Trigano SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trigano SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trigano SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trigano SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trigano SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trigano SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trigano SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Trigano SA Backtesting, Trigano SA Valuation, Trigano SA Correlation, Trigano SA Hype Analysis, Trigano SA Volatility, Trigano SA History as well as Trigano SA Performance. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Trigano Stock analysis
When running Trigano SA's price analysis, check to measure Trigano SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trigano SA is operating at the current time. Most of Trigano SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trigano SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trigano SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trigano SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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