Advance Auto Parts Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AAP Stock  USD 85.09  0.23  0.27%   
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding Advance Auto Parts is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Advance Auto buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AAP positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Advance Auto's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Advance Auto's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
81.08
Target Price
68.61
Hype Value
85.11
Market Value
85.09
Naive Value
80.13
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Advance Auto Parts given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Advance Auto. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Advance Auto Parts, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Advance Auto Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Advance and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Advance Auto Parts. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.

Execute Advance Auto Buy or Sell Advice

The Advance recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Advance Auto Parts. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Advance Auto Parts or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Advance Auto's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Advance AutoBuy Advance Auto
Strong Buy

Market Performance

SolidDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

Low keyDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Very LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon Advance Auto Parts has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1548, Jensen Alpha of 0.3741, Total Risk Alpha of 0.0759, Sortino Ratio of 0.2539 and Treynor Ratio of 0.4147
Macroaxis provides advice on Advance Auto Parts to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Advance Auto Parts. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Advance Auto is not overpriced, please confirm all Advance Auto Parts fundamentals, including its debt to equity, number of employees, and the relationship between the net income and short ratio . Given that Advance Auto Parts has a price to book of 1.99 X, we suggest you to validate Advance Auto Parts market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Advance Auto Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
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Advance Auto Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Advance Auto's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Advance Auto's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Advance Auto daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Advance Auto Parts price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Advance Auto returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Advance Auto.
Mean Return
0.54
Value At Risk
-2.45
Potential Upside
3.68
Standard Deviation
2.05
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Advance Auto historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Advance Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Advance Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advance Auto Parts backward and forwards among themselves. Advance Auto's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Advance Auto's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Two Sigma Investments Llc2023-12-31
1.1 M
Two Sigma Advisers, Llc2023-12-31
1.1 M
Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc.2023-09-30
931.1 K
Capital World Investors2023-12-31
918.3 K
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
888.7 K
Federated Hermes Inc2023-12-31
842.2 K
Ubs Group Ag2023-12-31
811.7 K
Legion Partners Asset Management, Llc2023-12-31
773 K
Marshall Wace Asset Management Ltd2023-12-31
708.3 K
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
7.7 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
6.8 M
Note, although Advance Auto's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Advance Auto Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash(477.9M)416.3M(233.6M)(332.1M)232.7M244.3M
Free Cash Flow395.3M701.9M822.6M296.3M45.0M42.7M
Other Non Cash Items19.1M54.2M964K13.6M4.1M3.9M
Capital Expenditures471.6M267.8M289.6M426.0M242.4M224.9M
Net Income486.9M493.0M616.1M501.9M29.7M28.2M
End Period Cash Flow418.7M835.0M601.4M269.3M503.5M291.1M
Change To Inventory(63.1M)(101.4M)(120.3M)(272.3M)44.8M47.1M
Depreciation238.4M250.1M259.9M283.8M306.5M210.1M
Dividends Paid17.2M56.3M160.9M336.2M(209.3M)(198.8M)
Change Receivables(21.5M)(62.8M)(59.0M)(32.7M)(37.5M)(39.4M)
Net Borrowings32.0M(369.4M)244.5M332.5M382.4M401.5M
Change To Netincome79.7M107.6M132.2M70.9M81.5M60.7M
Investments(462.9M)(266.9M)(287.3M)(424.4M)(277.8M)(291.7M)

Advance Auto Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Advance Auto or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Advance Auto's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Advance stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.37
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.29
σ
Overall volatility
2.12
Ir
Information ratio 0.20

Advance Auto Volatility Alert

Advance Auto Parts has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.43 and kurtosis of 0.95. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Advance Auto's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Advance Auto's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Advance Auto Implied Volatility

Advance Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advance Auto Parts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advance Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advance Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advance Auto's options are near their expiration.

Advance Auto Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Advance Auto's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Advance Auto's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Advance Auto and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Advance Auto or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Advance Auto's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advance Auto by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Advance Auto to competition
FundamentalsAdvance AutoPeer Average
Return On Equity0.0116-0.31
Return On Asset0.0059-0.14
Profit Margin0 %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.03) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation8.52 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding59.55 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders1.05 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions98.95 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted5.81 M4.71 M
Price To Earning19.36 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.99 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.44 X11.42 X
Revenue11.29 B9.43 B
Gross Profit4.96 B27.38 B
EBITDA420.83 M3.9 B
Net Income29.73 M570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents269.28 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share3.25 X5.01 X
Total Debt4.45 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity1.50 %48.70 %
Current Ratio1.13 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share42.34 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations287.38 M971.22 M
Short Ratio3.17 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.50 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth1.60 X4.89 X
Target Price65.21
Number Of Employees40 K18.84 K
Beta1.16-0.15
Market Capitalization5.02 B19.03 B
Total Asset13 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings4.56 B9.33 B
Working Capital1.07 B1.48 B
Note: Acquisition by Herman Word of 9705 shares of Advance Auto at 79.53 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Advance Auto Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Advance . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Advance Auto Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Advance Auto Parts? Buying financial instruments such as Advance Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Total Stockholder Equity3.1B2.7B2.5B1.8B
Total Assets12.2B12.0B13.0B13.7B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Advance Auto in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Coal Thematic Idea Now

Coal
Coal Theme
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Coal theme has 12 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Coal Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Advance Auto Parts is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Advance Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock:
Check out Advance Auto Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
Dividend Share
2.25
Earnings Share
0.5
Revenue Per Share
189.925
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advance Auto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.