Arthur J Gallagher Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AJG Stock | USD 233.99 3.47 1.51% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Arthur J Gallagher is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Arthur J buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Arthur J positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Arthur J's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Arthur J's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 243.05 | Target Price 248.13 | Hype Value 233.89 | Market Value 233.99 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Arthur J Gallagher given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Arthur J. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Arthur J Gallagher, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Arthur |
Execute Arthur J Buy or Sell Advice
The Arthur recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Arthur J Gallagher. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Arthur J Gallagher or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Arthur J's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Slowly supersedes the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Arthur J Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Arthur J Gallagher generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of March 2024 Arthur J paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Arthur J. Gallagher Co.s institutional investors lost 5.2 percent last week but have benefitted from longer-term gains |
Arthur J Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Arthur J's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Arthur J's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Arthur J daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Arthur J Gallagher price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Arthur J returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Arthur J.
| Mean Return | -0.01 | Value At Risk | -1.82 | Potential Upside | 1.33 | Standard Deviation | 0.94 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Arthur J historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Arthur Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Arthur J is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arthur J Gallagher backward and forwards among themselves. Arthur J's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Arthur J's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Baillie Gifford & Co Limited. | 2023-12-31 | 2.7 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.7 M | Wcm Investment Management | 2023-12-31 | 2.6 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 2.4 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 2 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.8 M | Legal & General Group Plc | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.6 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 25.6 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 17.4 M |
Arthur J Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 387.1M | 950.4M | 892M | 497.9M | 1.6B | 1.7B | |
| Free Cash Flow | 980.4M | 1.7B | 1.6B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.9B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 45.9M | 13.5M | 153.9M | 41.7M | 415.9M | 436.7M | |
| Dividends Paid | 321.1M | 347.4M | 392M | 429.5M | (473.6M) | (449.9M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 138.8M | 99.3M | 128.6M | 182.7M | 193.6M | 203.3M | |
| Net Income | 715.8M | 858.1M | 955M | 1.1B | 966M | 1.0B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 2.6B | 3.6B | 4.5B | 5.0B | 6.5B | 6.9B | |
| Depreciation | 474.4M | 562.4M | 566.3M | 599.6M | 696.5M | 731.3M | |
| Change To Netincome | (218.6M) | (167.3M) | (214.9M) | (311.3M) | (280.2M) | (266.2M) | |
| Change To Inventory | (180.7M) | (25M) | (25.3M) | (260.6M) | (234.5M) | (222.8M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 976.1M | (96.4M) | 1.7B | 15M | 17.3M | 16.4M | |
| Investments | (52M) | (1.4M) | (67.9M) | (68.2M) | (1.8B) | (1.7B) |
Arthur J Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Arthur J or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Arthur J's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Arthur stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Arthur J Volatility Alert
Arthur J Gallagher exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.42 and kurtosis of -0.24. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Arthur J's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Arthur J's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Arthur J Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Arthur J's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Arthur J's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Arthur J and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Arthur J or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Arthur J's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arthur J by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Arthur J to competition |
| Fundamentals | Arthur J | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0966 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0316 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.10 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.32 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 57.79 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 218.3 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.14 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 86.97 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.99 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 44.94 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 4.75 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 5.36 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.7 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 3.64 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (1.32 B) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 966 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 342.3 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.63 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 8.32 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.76 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.06 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 49.73 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 2.03 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.33 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 4.42 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.09 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 262.93 | |
| Number Of Employees | 52 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.68 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 50.67 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 51.62 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 4.05 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.05 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 8381 shares by Scott Hudson of Arthur J subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Arthur J Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Arthur . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 12213.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.180272 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 234.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 234.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.23 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 3.47 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 82.16 |
About Arthur J Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Arthur J Gallagher? Buying financial instruments such as Arthur Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 6.6B | 6.4B | 8.3B | 8.7B | Total Assets | 33.3B | 38.9B | 51.6B | 54.2B |
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Check out Arthur J Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
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When running Arthur J's price analysis, check to measure Arthur J's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arthur J is operating at the current time. Most of Arthur J's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arthur J's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arthur J's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arthur J to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arthur J's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arthur J. If investors know Arthur will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arthur J listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.076 | Dividend Share 2.2 | Earnings Share 4.42 | Revenue Per Share 44.482 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.18 |
The market value of Arthur J Gallagher is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arthur that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arthur J's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arthur J's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arthur J's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arthur J's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arthur J's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arthur J is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arthur J's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.