Aspen Technology Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

AZPN Stock  USD 213.28  5.37  2.58%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your highly speculative risk level, our recommendation regarding Aspen Technology is 'Not Rated'. Macroaxis provides Aspen Technology buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AZPN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Aspen Technology's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Aspen Technology's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
0.0
Target Price
201.83
Hype Value
0.0
Market Value
213.28
Naive Value
200.22
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Aspen Technology given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Aspen Technology. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Aspen Technology, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Aspen Technology Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Aspen and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Aspen Technology. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.

Execute Aspen Technology Buy or Sell Advice

The Aspen recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Aspen Technology. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Aspen Technology or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Aspen Technology's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell Aspen TechnologyBuy Aspen Technology
Strong Sell

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Out of controlDetails

Hype Condition

Under hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Below AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

ImpartialDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Aspen Technology has a Mean Deviation of 1.38, Standard Deviation of 1.92 and Variance of 3.69
Macroaxis provides advice on Aspen Technology to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Aspen Technology. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Aspen Technology is not overpriced, please confirm all Aspen Technology fundamentals, including its current ratio, total asset, and the relationship between the net income and price to earnings to growth . Given that Aspen Technology has a price to earning of 62.82 X, we suggest you to validate Aspen Technology market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Aspen Technology Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Aspen Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.04 B. Net Loss for the year was (107.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 331.87 M.
About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Aspen Technology, Inc. Shares Sold by Raymond James Associates - Defense World

Aspen Technology Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Aspen Technology's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Aspen Technology's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Aspen Technology daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Aspen Technology price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Aspen Technology returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Aspen Technology.
Mean Return
-0.02
Value At Risk
-2.98
Potential Upside
2.58
Standard Deviation
1.92
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Aspen Technology historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Aspen Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Aspen Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aspen Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Aspen Technology's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Aspen Technology's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Clearbridge Advisors, Llc2023-12-31
497.9 K
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc2023-12-31
415.7 K
Independent Franchise Partners Llp2023-12-31
413.1 K
Lazard Asset Management Llc2023-12-31
369.7 K
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2023-12-31
313.1 K
Valley Forge Capital Management, Lp2023-12-31
295.5 K
Credit Suisse First Boston (csfb)2023-12-31
294.9 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
272.9 K
Two Creeks Capital Management, Lp2023-12-31
265.8 K
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
5.3 M
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management Llc2023-12-31
3.8 M
Note, although Aspen Technology's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Aspen Technology Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change In Cash215.9M92.1M424.0M(208.5M)(239.8M)(227.8M)
Free Cash Flow241.8M273.8M224.2M292.3M336.1M352.9M
Depreciation9.6M10.3M158.0M491.4M565.1M593.4M
Other Non Cash Items13.6M23.0M2.4M51.7M46.6M48.9M
Capital Expenditures1.4M2.4M6.2M6.9M6.2M5.8M
Net Income225.7M319.8M41.9M(107.8M)(123.9M)(117.7M)
End Period Cash Flow287.8M379.9M449.7M241.2M277.4M145.6M
Change To Inventory(61.7M)(12.1M)(136.8M)(27.7M)(24.9M)(26.2M)
Change Receivables4.3M(6.6M)(12.9M)(2.1M)(1.9M)(1.8M)
Net Borrowings50M207.6M(135.2M)(8.0M)(7.2M)(6.8M)
Change To Netincome557K64.6M59.9M(75.5M)(68.0M)(64.6M)
Investments(324K)(1.1M)(32K)(107.3M)(96.6M)(91.8M)

Aspen Technology Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aspen Technology or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aspen Technology's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aspen stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.27
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.90
σ
Overall volatility
1.98
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Aspen Technology Volatility Alert

Aspen Technology exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.44 and kurtosis of 2.95. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Aspen Technology's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Aspen Technology's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Aspen Technology Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Aspen Technology's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Aspen Technology's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Aspen Technology and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Aspen Technology or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Aspen Technology's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Technology by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Aspen Technology to competition
FundamentalsAspen TechnologyPeer Average
Return On Equity-0.0066-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0078-0.14
Profit Margin(0.08) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.19) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation13.52 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding63.55 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders57.73 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions47.44 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted1.37 M4.71 M
Price To Earning62.82 X28.72 X
Price To Book1.05 X9.51 X
Price To Sales12.82 X11.42 X
Revenue1.04 B9.43 B
Gross Profit331.87 M27.38 B
EBITDA308.35 M3.9 B
Net Income(107.76 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents382.46 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share5.93 X5.01 X
Total Debt68.37 M5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.03 %48.70 %
Current Ratio3.48 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share201.96 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations299.21 M971.22 M
Short Ratio5.63 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(1.35) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth4.85 X4.89 X
Target Price216.29
Number Of Employees3.9 K18.84 K
Beta0.76-0.15
Market Capitalization13.55 B19.03 B
Total Asset14.49 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(41.39 M)9.33 B
Working Capital480.64 M1.48 B
Note: Sale by Antonio Pietri of 5188 shares of Aspen Technology [view details]

Aspen Technology Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Aspen . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Aspen Technology Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Aspen Technology? Buying financial instruments such as Aspen Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total352.8M68.4M78.6M131.3M
Total Assets15.0B14.5B16.7B17.5B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Aspen Technology in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

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Run Long Short Funds Thematic Idea Now

Long Short Funds
Long Short Funds Theme
Funds or Etfs that are designed to hedge away market risk by investing in combination of bonds, stocks, derivative instruments as well as short positions to maximize returns irrespective of market conditions. The Long Short Funds theme has 37 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Long Short Funds Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Aspen Technology offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aspen Technology's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aspen Technology Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aspen Technology Stock:
Check out Aspen Technology Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

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Is Aspen Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.63)
Earnings Share
(1.35)
Revenue Per Share
16.424
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.059
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.