Caterpillar Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| CAT Stock | USD 357.93 0.39 0.11% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Caterpillar is 'Strong Buy'. Macroaxis provides Caterpillar buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding CAT positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Caterpillar's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Caterpillar's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 346.58 | Target Price 284.95 | Hype Value 357.7 | Market Value 357.93 | Naive Value 348.92 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Caterpillar given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Caterpillar. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Caterpillar, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Caterpillar |
Execute Caterpillar Buy or Sell Advice
The Caterpillar recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Caterpillar. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Caterpillar or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Caterpillar's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Solid | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Small | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Caterpillar Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Caterpillar is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Caterpillar has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Caterpillar Stock Moves -0.43 percent What You Should Know |
Caterpillar Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Caterpillar's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Caterpillar's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Caterpillar daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Caterpillar price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Caterpillar returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Caterpillar.
| Mean Return | 0.35 | Value At Risk | -1.77 | Potential Upside | 2.46 | Standard Deviation | 1.38 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Caterpillar historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Caterpillar Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Caterpillar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caterpillar backward and forwards among themselves. Caterpillar's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Caterpillar's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 5.6 M | Fmr Inc | 2023-12-31 | 5.5 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2023-12-31 | 4.7 M | Legal & General Group Plc | 2023-12-31 | 3.8 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 3.8 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 3.3 M | Amundi | 2023-12-31 | 3.2 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2023-12-31 | 3 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 2.8 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 48.4 M | State Street Corporation | 2023-12-31 | 37.7 M |
Caterpillar Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 274M | (34M) | (2.6B) | (2.6B) | (364M) | (382.2M) | |
| Change In Cash | 402M | 1.1B | (103M) | (2.3B) | (26M) | (24.7M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 4.2B | 4.2B | 4.7B | 5.2B | 9.8B | 10.3B | |
| Depreciation | 2.6B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.2B | 2.1B | 1.9B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 675M | 1B | 216M | 1.0B | 639M | 671.0M | |
| Dividends Paid | 2.1B | 2.2B | 2.3B | 2.4B | (2.6B) | (2.4B) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 2.7B | 2.1B | 2.5B | 2.6B | 3.1B | 2.4B | |
| Net Income | 6.1B | 3.0B | 6.5B | 6.7B | 10.3B | 10.9B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 8.3B | 9.4B | 9.3B | 7.0B | 7.0B | 3.5B | |
| Investments | (382M) | 10M | (1.5B) | (2.5B) | (5.9B) | (6.2B) | |
| Change Receivables | 171M | 1.4B | (1.3B) | (220M) | (198M) | (188.1M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (8.4B) | (11.0B) | 681M | (652M) | (586.8M) | (616.1M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 1.2B | 1.3B | (996M) | 643M | 739.5M | 964.5M |
Caterpillar Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Caterpillar or Machinery sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Caterpillar's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Caterpillar stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Caterpillar Volatility Alert
Caterpillar has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.23 and kurtosis of -0.09. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Caterpillar's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Caterpillar's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Caterpillar Implied Volatility
Caterpillar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caterpillar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caterpillar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caterpillar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caterpillar's options are near their expiration.
Caterpillar Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Caterpillar's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Caterpillar's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Caterpillar and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Caterpillar or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Caterpillar's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caterpillar by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Caterpillar to competition |
| Fundamentals | Caterpillar | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.58 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.1 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.15 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.19 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 209.2 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 499.38 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.20 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 72.47 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 13.06 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 17.15 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 9.37 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 2.72 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 67.06 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 15.56 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 15.97 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 10.34 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 7 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 14.27 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 38.45 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.34 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.41 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 39.04 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 12.88 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 6.16 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 20.12 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.10 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 325.31 | |
| Number Of Employees | 113.2 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.16 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 178.74 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 87.48 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 51.25 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 12.22 B | 1.48 B |
Caterpillar Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Caterpillar . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 47873.66 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.05) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 359.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 359.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.39) |
About Caterpillar Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Caterpillar? Buying financial instruments such as Caterpillar Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 37.8B | 37.0B | 38.5B | 23.8B | Total Assets | 82.8B | 81.9B | 87.5B | 50.5B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Caterpillar in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Caterpillar Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Caterpillar Stock please use our How to Invest in Caterpillar guide.Note that the Caterpillar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Caterpillar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
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When running Caterpillar's price analysis, check to measure Caterpillar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caterpillar is operating at the current time. Most of Caterpillar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caterpillar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caterpillar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caterpillar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Caterpillar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caterpillar. If investors know Caterpillar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caterpillar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.893 | Dividend Share 5.1 | Earnings Share 20.12 | Revenue Per Share 131.336 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.029 |
The market value of Caterpillar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caterpillar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caterpillar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caterpillar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caterpillar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caterpillar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caterpillar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caterpillar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caterpillar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.