Twilio Inc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

TWLO Stock  USD 61.15  0.14  0.23%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Twilio Inc is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Twilio buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Twilio positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Twilio's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Twilio's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value
56.87
Target Price
67.43
Hype Value
61.15
Market Value
61.15
Naive Value
57.5
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Twilio Inc given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Twilio. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Twilio Inc, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out Twilio Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Twilio and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Twilio Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis.

Execute Twilio Buy or Sell Advice

The Twilio recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Twilio Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Twilio Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Twilio's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell TwilioBuy Twilio
Cautious Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

Very steadyDetails

Hype Condition

StaleDetails

Current Valuation

OvervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

LowDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

AlarmedDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

UnavailableDetails
For the selected time horizon Twilio Inc has a Mean Deviation of 1.84, Standard Deviation of 2.93 and Variance of 8.58
Macroaxis provides unbiased trade recommendation on Twilio Inc that should be used to complement current analysts and expert consensus on Twilio Inc. Our advice engine determines the firm's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investors' current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Twilio Inc is not overpriced, please validate all Twilio fundamentals, including its current ratio, total asset, and the relationship between the net income and price to earnings to growth . Given that Twilio Inc has a price to earning of (62.00) X, we advise you to double-check Twilio Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Twilio Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Twilio Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.15 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.02 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.81 B.
Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Twilio Advances But Underperforms Market Key Facts

Twilio Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of Twilio's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Twilio's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Twilio daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Twilio Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Twilio returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Twilio.
Mean Return
-0.29
Value At Risk
-4.19
Potential Upside
3.73
Standard Deviation
2.93
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Twilio historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

Twilio Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Twilio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Twilio Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Twilio's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Twilio's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Pictet Asset Manangement Sa2023-12-31
3.2 M
Geode Capital Management, Llc2023-12-31
2.6 M
Alyeska Investment Group, L.p.2023-09-30
2.6 M
Southpoint Capital Advisors Lp2023-12-31
2.5 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
2.4 M
Voloridge Investment Management, Llc2023-09-30
2.2 M
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2023-12-31
1.9 M
Amazon.com Inc2023-12-31
1.8 M
Holocene Advisors, Lp2023-09-30
1.7 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
17.8 M
Blackrock Inc2023-12-31
10.5 M
Note, although Twilio's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Twilio Cash Flow Accounts

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Change To Inventory30.5M(16.8M)(40.0M)(123.0M)(110.7M)(105.2M)
Change In Cash(251.6M)680.2M547.9M(825.8M)4.2M4.0M
Free Cash Flow(53.2M)(26.5M)(148.2M)(334.6M)363.5M381.7M
Depreciation110.4M149.7M258.4M279.1M284.4M298.6M
Other Non Cash Items50.1M126.9M203.4M320.7M2.1B2.2B
Capital Expenditures67.3M59.1M90.0M80.2M51.2M44.5M
Net Income(307.1M)(491.0M)(949.9M)(1.3B)(1.0B)(964.7M)
End Period Cash Flow253.7M933.9M1.5B656.1M655.9M510.4M
Investments(1.3B)(453.1M)(1.9B)(616.5M)431.4M453.0M
Change To Netincome272.0M386.6M772.2M1.1B1.2B1.3B
Net Borrowings(11.0M)(10.8M)979.2M(13.4M)(12.1M)(11.5M)
Change Receivables(58.2M)(51.4M)(81.3M)(117.9M)(106.1M)(100.8M)

Twilio Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Twilio or IT Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Twilio's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Twilio stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.48
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.43
σ
Overall volatility
2.94
Ir
Information ratio -0.15

Twilio Volatility Alert

Twilio Inc exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -2.06 and kurtosis of 10.38. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Twilio's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Twilio's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

Twilio Implied Volatility

Twilio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Twilio Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Twilio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Twilio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Twilio's options are near their expiration.

Twilio Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing Twilio's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Twilio's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Twilio and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Twilio or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Twilio's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Twilio by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Twilio to competition
FundamentalsTwilioPeer Average
Return On Equity-0.1-0.31
Return On Asset-0.0199-0.14
Profit Margin(0.24) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin(0.04) %(5.51) %
Current Valuation8.27 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding182.06 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders4.87 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions80.29 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted3.4 M4.71 M
Price To Earning(62.00) X28.72 X
Price To Book1.14 X9.51 X
Price To Sales2.67 X11.42 X
Revenue4.15 B9.43 B
Gross Profit1.81 B27.38 B
EBITDA(876.54 M)3.9 B
Net Income(1.02 B)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents4.21 B2.7 B
Cash Per Share22.83 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.18 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity0.12 %48.70 %
Current Ratio5.74 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share53.49 X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations414.75 M971.22 M
Short Ratio0.66 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(5.54) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth44.96 X4.89 X
Target Price70.64
Number Of Employees5.87 K18.84 K
Beta1.35-0.15
Market Capitalization11.09 B19.03 B
Total Asset11.61 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(5.07 B)9.33 B
Working Capital4.17 B1.48 B
Note: Acquisition by Suzuki Miyuki of 1192 shares of Twilio subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]

Twilio Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Twilio . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About Twilio Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell Twilio Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Twilio Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Other Current Liabilities417.5M490.2M415.8M436.6M
Total Assets13.0B12.6B11.6B5.9B

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having Twilio in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Manufacturing Thematic Idea Now

Manufacturing
Manufacturing Theme
Companies that provide goods across residential, commercial and industrial construction such as machinery, tools, or lumber production. The Manufacturing theme has 20 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Manufacturing Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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When determining whether Twilio Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Twilio's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Twilio Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Twilio Inc Stock:
Check out Twilio Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

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When running Twilio's price analysis, check to measure Twilio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Twilio is operating at the current time. Most of Twilio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Twilio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Twilio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Twilio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Twilio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Twilio. If investors know Twilio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Twilio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(5.54)
Revenue Per Share
22.659
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.05
Return On Assets
(0.02)
Return On Equity
(0.10)
The market value of Twilio Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Twilio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Twilio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Twilio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Twilio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Twilio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Twilio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Twilio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Twilio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.