Union Pacific Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| UNP Stock | USD 234.47 2.39 1.03% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Union Pacific is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Union Pacific buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding UNP positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Union Pacific's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Union Pacific's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 239.16 | Target Price 241.08 | Hype Value 232.06 | Market Value 234.47 | Naive Value 228.11 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Union Pacific given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Union Pacific. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Union Pacific, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Union |
Execute Union Pacific Buy or Sell Advice
The Union recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Union Pacific. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Union Pacific or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Union Pacific's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Union Pacific Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Union Pacific generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 34.18 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.98, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Union Pacific has a current ratio of 0.75, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Union Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Pacific sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 82.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Is a Beat in Store for American Airlines in Q1 Earnings |
Union Pacific Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Union Pacific's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Union Pacific's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Union Pacific daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Union Pacific price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Union Pacific returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Union Pacific.
| Mean Return | -0.01 | Value At Risk | -1.3 | Potential Upside | 1.69 | Standard Deviation | 0.94 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Union Pacific historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Union Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Union Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Union Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Union Pacific's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Union Pacific's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2023-12-31 | 7.4 M | Soroban Capital Partners Lp | 2023-12-31 | 7 M | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2023-12-31 | 7 M | Capital Research Global Investors | 2023-12-31 | 6.9 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 6.4 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 6.4 M | Fisher Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 5.9 M | Legal & General Group Plc | 2023-12-31 | 5.8 M | Franklin Resources Inc | 2023-12-31 | 5.5 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 57.8 M | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 42 M |
Union Pacific Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (9M) | 113M | 17M | (120M) | (2M) | (2.1M) | |
| Change In Cash | (472M) | 962M | (835M) | 4M | 87M | 91.4M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 5.2B | 5.6B | 6.1B | 5.7B | 4.8B | 5.0B | |
| Depreciation | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.3B | 1.3B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (92M) | 641M | 147M | (152M) | (132M) | (125.4M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 2.6B | 2.6B | 2.8B | 3.2B | 3.2B | 3.3B | |
| Capital Expenditures | 3.5B | 2.9B | 2.9B | 3.6B | 3.6B | 2.7B | |
| Net Income | 5.9B | 5.3B | 6.5B | 7.0B | 6.4B | 6.7B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 856M | 1.8B | 983M | 987M | 1.1B | 844.9M | |
| Change Receivables | (262M) | 160M | 90M | (169M) | (194.4M) | (204.1M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 2.8B | 1.5B | 3.0B | 3.6B | 4.1B | 4.3B | |
| Change To Netincome | 546M | 225M | 301M | 86M | 77.4M | 131.5M | |
| Investments | 15M | 5M | 24M | (3.5B) | (3.7B) | (3.5B) |
Union Pacific Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Union Pacific or Ground Transportation sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Union Pacific's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Union stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.92 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Union Pacific Volatility Alert
Union Pacific exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.43 and kurtosis of -0.41. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Union Pacific's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Union Pacific's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Union Pacific Implied Volatility
Union Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Union Pacific stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Union Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Union Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when Union Pacific's options are near their expiration.
Union Pacific Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Union Pacific's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Union Pacific's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Union Pacific and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Union Pacific or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Union Pacific's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Union Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Union Pacific to competition |
| Fundamentals | Union Pacific | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.47 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0861 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.26 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.39 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 174.63 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 610.1 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.21 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 82.24 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.49 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 19.05 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 9.67 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 5.93 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 24.12 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 13.37 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 11.48 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 6.38 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 973 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.14 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 34.18 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.98 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.77 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 24.25 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 8.38 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.94 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 10.44 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.53 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 262.91 | |
| Number Of Employees | 32.97 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.07 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 141.59 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 67.13 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 62.09 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (958 M) | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Eric Gehringer of tradable shares of Union Pacific at 250.96 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Union Pacific Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Union . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 33702.91 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6621 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 233.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 234.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.82 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.39 |
About Union Pacific Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Union Pacific? Buying financial instruments such as Union Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 31.2B | 34.6B | 34.2B | 35.9B | Total Assets | 63.5B | 65.4B | 67.1B | 39.6B |
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Check out Union Pacific Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Union Stock, please use our How to Invest in Union Pacific guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
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When running Union Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Union Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Union Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Union Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Union Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Union Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Union Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Union Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Union Pacific. If investors know Union will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Union Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.012 | Dividend Share 5.2 | Earnings Share 10.44 | Revenue Per Share 39.591 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Union Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Union that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Union Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Union Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Union Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Union Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Union Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.