Ollies Bargain Outlet Stock Market Value
| OLLI Stock | USD 75.22 1.52 2.06% |
| Symbol | Ollies |
Is Ollies Bargain's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ollies Bargain. If investors know Ollies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ollies Bargain listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ollies Bargain Outlet is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ollies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ollies Bargain's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ollies Bargain's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ollies Bargain's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ollies Bargain's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ollies Bargain's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ollies Bargain is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ollies Bargain's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Ollies Bargain 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ollies Bargain's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ollies Bargain.
| 02/24/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ollies Bargain on February 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ollies Bargain Outlet or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ollies Bargain over 60 days. Ollies Bargain is related to or competes with Dollar Tree, BJs Wholesale, Dollar General, Costco Wholesale, Walmart, Big Lots, and Target. Ollies Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise More
Ollies Bargain Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ollies Bargain's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ollies Bargain Outlet upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.09 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.79) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.43 |
Ollies Bargain Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ollies Bargain's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ollies Bargain's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ollies Bargain historical prices to predict the future Ollies Bargain's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0339 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0701 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6888 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ollies Bargain's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ollies Bargain Outlet Backtested Returns
We consider Ollies Bargain very steady. Ollies Bargain Outlet maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.043, which implies the firm had a 0.043% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Ollies Bargain Outlet, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Ollies Bargain's Coefficient Of Variation of 2323.3, risk adjusted performance of 0.0339, and Semi Deviation of 2.16 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.09%. Ollies Bargain has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.12, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ollies Bargain's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ollies Bargain is expected to be smaller as well. Ollies Bargain Outlet right now holds a risk of 2.09%. Please check Ollies Bargain Outlet sortino ratio, skewness, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to decide if Ollies Bargain Outlet will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.74 |
Good predictability
Ollies Bargain Outlet has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ollies Bargain time series from 24th of February 2024 to 25th of March 2024 and 25th of March 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ollies Bargain Outlet price movement. The serial correlation of 0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Ollies Bargain price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7.66 |
Ollies Bargain Outlet lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ollies Bargain stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ollies Bargain's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ollies Bargain returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ollies Bargain has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ollies Bargain regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ollies Bargain stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ollies Bargain stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ollies Bargain stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ollies Bargain Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ollies Bargain's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ollies Bargain stock have on its future price. Ollies Bargain autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ollies Bargain autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ollies Bargain stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ollies Bargain Outlet.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ollies Bargain in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ollies Bargain's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ollies Bargain options trading.
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Complementary Tools for Ollies Stock analysis
When running Ollies Bargain's price analysis, check to measure Ollies Bargain's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ollies Bargain is operating at the current time. Most of Ollies Bargain's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ollies Bargain's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ollies Bargain's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ollies Bargain to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Ollies Bargain technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.