Target Backtesting

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#FF0F00;color: #FFFFF0;font-size:3em;padding-top: 38px;;'>TGT</div>
TGT -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: 31st of July 2020  

With this equity back-testing module your can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Target and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Target over given investment horizon. Additionally, take a look at Target Hype Analysis, Target Correlation, Target Valuation, Target Volatility as well as analyze Target Alpha and Beta and Target Performance.

Target 'What if' Analysis

No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 3 months and 1 day
If you would invest  0.00  in Target on April 14, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Target or generate 0.0% return on investment in Target over 90 days. Target is related to or competes with Sysco, JC Penney, Spectrum Brands, Sprouts Farmers, Vipshop Holdings, and Rite Aid. Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States

Target Upside/Downside Indicators

Downside Deviation1.62
Information Ratio0.0697
Maximum Drawdown10.4
Value At Risk(2.33)
Potential Upside3.76

Target Market Premium Indicators

Risk Adjusted Performance0.2777
Jensen Alpha0.2969
Total Risk Alpha0.1204
Sortino Ratio0.0854
Treynor Ratio38.23

Target Backtested Returns

We consider Target very steady. Target owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0882, which indicates the firm had 0.0882% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards measuring the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Target, which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the company. Please validate Target coefficient of variation of 644.96, semi deviation of 1.35, and risk adjusted performance of 0.2777 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. Target has performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.0078, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Target's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Target returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Target will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is extremely important to respect Target current price movements, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity historical returns. The philosophy towards measuring future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By inspecting Target technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.16% will be sustainable into the future. Target right now has a risk of 1.83%. Please validate Target total risk alpha, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the Downside Variance and daily balance of power to decide if Target will be following its existing price patterns.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations
15 days auto-correlation(0.35) 
correlation synergy

Poor reverse predictability

Target has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Target time series from 14th of April 2020 to 29th of May 2020 and 29th of May 2020 to 13th of July 2020. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Target price movement. The serial correlation of -0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current Target price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Target has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Target for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient-0.35
Spearman Rank Test-0.42
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance2.43

Target lagged returns against current returns

 Current and Lagged Values 

Target regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

 Current vs Lagged Prices 

Target Lagged Returns

 Regressed Prices 

Current Sentiment - TGT

Target Investor Sentiment

Predominant part of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Target. What is your outlook on investing in Target? Are you bullish or bearish?
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

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Additionally, take a look at Target Hype Analysis, Target Correlation, Target Valuation, Target Volatility as well as analyze Target Alpha and Beta and Target Performance. Please also try Premium Stories module to follow macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page