True Public (Thailand) Market Value
| TRUE Stock | THB 7.85 0.15 1.88% |
| Symbol | True |
True Public 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to True Public's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of True Public.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in True Public on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding True Public or generate 0.0% return on investment in True Public over 30 days. True Public is related to or competes with Advanced Info, PTT Public, Charoen Pokphand, SCB X, and CP ALL. True Corporation Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the telecommunications and diversifi... More
True Public Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure True Public's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess True Public upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2652 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.44 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.89) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.57 |
True Public Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for True Public's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as True Public's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use True Public historical prices to predict the future True Public's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.19 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6444 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4417 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.3767 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.66 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of True Public's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
True Public Backtested Returns
True Public appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. True Public owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.29, which indicates the firm had a 0.29% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting True Public's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.67% is justified by implied risk. Please review True Public's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.19, coefficient of variation of 338.21, and Semi Deviation of 0.9331 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, True Public holds a performance score of 22. The entity has a beta of 0.18, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, True Public's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding True Public is expected to be smaller as well. Please check True Public's treynor ratio, value at risk, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether True Public's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.62 |
Good predictability
True Public has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between True Public time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of True Public price movement. The serial correlation of 0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current True Public price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.33 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
True Public lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is True Public stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting True Public's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of True Public returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that True Public has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
True Public regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If True Public stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if True Public stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in True Public stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
True Public Lagged Returns
When evaluating True Public's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of True Public stock have on its future price. True Public autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, True Public autocorrelation shows the relationship between True Public stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in True Public.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards True Public in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, True Public's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from True Public options trading.
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Check out True Public Correlation, True Public Volatility and True Public Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on True Public. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for True Stock analysis
When running True Public's price analysis, check to measure True Public's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy True Public is operating at the current time. Most of True Public's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of True Public's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move True Public's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of True Public to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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True Public technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.