Apple Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AAPL Stock  USD 173.31  3.60  2.12%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 171.92 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.91  and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.24. Apple Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Apple stock prices and determine the direction of Apple Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Apple's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Apple's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Apple's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Apple fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.
  
Inventory Turnover is expected to rise to 43.69 this year. Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 5.68 this year. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 21 B this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 117.1 B this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Apple Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Apple's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Apple's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Apple stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Apple's open interest, investors have to compare it to Apple's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Apple is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Apple. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Apple cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Apple's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Apple's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Apple price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Apple Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 171.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.91, mean absolute percentage error of 20.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apple Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apple's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Apple Stock Forecast Pattern

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Apple Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Apple's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apple's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 170.60 and 173.23, respectively. We have considered Apple's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
173.31
170.60
Downside
171.92
Expected Value
173.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apple stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apple stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.9842
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.907
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0214
SAESum of the absolute errors242.2359
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Apple Inc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Apple

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apple Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Apple's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
172.25173.57174.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
155.98182.72184.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
168.29171.29174.29
Details
45 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
170.83187.73208.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Apple. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Apple's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Apple's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Apple Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Apple

For every potential investor in Apple, whether a beginner or expert, Apple's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apple Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apple's price trends.

Apple Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apple stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apple could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apple by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Apple Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Apple's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Apple's current price.

Apple Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apple stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apple shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apple stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apple Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Apple Risk Indicators

The analysis of Apple's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apple's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apple stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Apple Investors Sentiment

The influence of Apple's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Apple. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Apple's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Apple. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Apple can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Apple Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Apple's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Apple's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Apple's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Apple.

Apple Implied Volatility

    
  25.22  
Apple's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Apple Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Apple's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Apple stock will not fluctuate a lot when Apple's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Apple in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Apple's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Apple options trading.

Pair Trading with Apple

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Apple position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Apple will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Apple Stock

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Moving against Apple Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Apple could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Apple when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Apple - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Apple Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Apple is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Apple moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Apple Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Apple can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Apple Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Apple's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Apple's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Apple Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running Apple's price analysis, check to measure Apple's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Apple is operating at the current time. Most of Apple's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Apple's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Apple's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Apple to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Apple's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apple. If investors know Apple will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Apple listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.16
Dividend Share
0.95
Earnings Share
6.43
Revenue Per Share
24.648
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.021
The market value of Apple Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apple that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apple's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apple's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Apple's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apple's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apple's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Apple is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apple's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.