Bristol Myers Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

BMY Stock  USD 53.25  0.70  1.33%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bristol Myers Squibb on the next trading day is expected to be 53.25 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.52  and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.20. Bristol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bristol Myers stock prices and determine the direction of Bristol Myers Squibb's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bristol Myers' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bristol Myers' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bristol Myers' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bristol Myers fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bristol Myers to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Bristol Myers' Payables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 5.60 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 2.54 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 6 B in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 1.6 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Bristol Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bristol Myers' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bristol Myers' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bristol Myers stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bristol Myers' open interest, investors have to compare it to Bristol Myers' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bristol Myers is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bristol. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bristol Myers cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bristol Myers' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bristol Myers' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Bristol Myers is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Bristol Myers Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bristol Myers Squibb on the next trading day is expected to be 53.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bristol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bristol Myers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bristol Myers Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bristol Myers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bristol Myers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bristol Myers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.07 and 54.43, respectively. We have considered Bristol Myers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
53.25
53.25
Expected Value
54.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bristol Myers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bristol Myers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4241
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0394
MADMean absolute deviation0.5201
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0102
SAESum of the absolute errors31.205
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Bristol Myers Squibb price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Bristol Myers. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Bristol Myers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bristol-Myers Squibb. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bristol Myers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
52.0853.2554.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.0552.2253.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
51.8552.6853.52
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
65.1371.5779.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bristol Myers. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bristol Myers' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bristol Myers' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Other Forecasting Options for Bristol Myers

For every potential investor in Bristol, whether a beginner or expert, Bristol Myers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bristol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bristol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bristol Myers' price trends.

Bristol Myers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bristol Myers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bristol Myers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bristol Myers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bristol-Myers Squibb Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bristol Myers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bristol Myers' current price.

Bristol Myers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bristol Myers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bristol Myers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bristol Myers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bristol Myers Squibb entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bristol Myers Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bristol Myers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bristol Myers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bristol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Bristol Myers Investors Sentiment

The influence of Bristol Myers' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Bristol. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Bristol Myers' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bristol. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bristol can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bristol Myers Squibb. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bristol Myers' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Bristol Myers' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Bristol Myers' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Bristol Myers.

Bristol Myers Implied Volatility

    
  26.54  
Bristol Myers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bristol Myers Squibb stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bristol Myers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bristol Myers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bristol Myers' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bristol Myers in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bristol Myers' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bristol Myers options trading.

Pair Trading with Bristol Myers

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bristol Myers position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bristol Myers will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bristol Stock

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Moving against Bristol Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bristol Myers could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bristol Myers when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bristol Myers - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bristol Myers Squibb to buy it.
The correlation of Bristol Myers is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bristol Myers moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bristol-Myers Squibb moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bristol Myers can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Bristol-Myers Squibb offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bristol Myers' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bristol Myers Squibb Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bristol Myers Squibb Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bristol Myers to cross-verify your projections.
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Is Bristol Myers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bristol Myers. If investors know Bristol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bristol Myers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.09)
Dividend Share
2.31
Earnings Share
3.86
Revenue Per Share
21.753
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.006
The market value of Bristol-Myers Squibb is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bristol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bristol Myers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bristol Myers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bristol Myers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bristol Myers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bristol Myers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bristol Myers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bristol Myers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.