GlaxoSmithKline PLC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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GSK -- USA Stock  

Report: 22nd of July 2020  

GlaxoSmithKline PLC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast GlaxoSmithKline PLC historical stock prices and determine the direction of GlaxoSmithKline PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of GlaxoSmithKline PLC historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although GlaxoSmithKline PLC naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of GlaxoSmithKline PLC systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GlaxoSmithKline PLC fundamentals over time. Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of GlaxoSmithKline PLC to cross-verify your projections.

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GlaxoSmithKline PLC Asset Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Asset Turnover was reported at 0.49. The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to increase to about 5.9 B. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 5.5 B.
A naive forecasting model for GlaxoSmithKline PLC is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GlaxoSmithKline PLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GlaxoSmithKline PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of July 2020

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of GlaxoSmithKline PLC on the next trading day is expected to be  40.07  with a mean absolute deviation of  0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of  0.24 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  24.08 
 40.07 

GlaxoSmithKline PLC Stock Forecast Pattern

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GlaxoSmithKline PLC Forecasted Value

Market Value
39.91
11th of July 2020
40.07
Expected Value
41.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6802
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3948
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors24.0822
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GlaxoSmithKline PLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GlaxoSmithKline PLC. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GlaxoSmithKline PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GlaxoSmithKline PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.832.902.98
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38.3539.8841.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
35.9245.4446.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
39.5640.5041.45
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
42.1050.2758.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for GlaxoSmithKline PLC

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of GlaxoSmithKline PLC to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
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