Hyatt Hotels Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

H Stock  USD 159.62  1.22  0.76%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hyatt Hotels on the next trading day is expected to be 159.17 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.75  and the sum of the absolute errors of 170.55. Hyatt Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hyatt Hotels stock prices and determine the direction of Hyatt Hotels's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hyatt Hotels' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hyatt Hotels' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hyatt Hotels' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hyatt Hotels fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hyatt Hotels to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Hyatt Stock please use our How to Invest in Hyatt Hotels guide.
  
The Hyatt Hotels' current Inventory Turnover is estimated to increase to 670.48. The Hyatt Hotels' current Payables Turnover is estimated to increase to 20.00. The Hyatt Hotels' current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 113.9 M. The Hyatt Hotels' current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 549.4 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Hyatt Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hyatt Hotels' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hyatt Hotels' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hyatt Hotels stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hyatt Hotels' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hyatt Hotels' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hyatt Hotels is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hyatt. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hyatt Hotels cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hyatt Hotels' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hyatt Hotels' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hyatt Hotels is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hyatt Hotels value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hyatt Hotels Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hyatt Hotels on the next trading day is expected to be 159.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75, mean absolute percentage error of 12.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 170.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hyatt Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hyatt Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hyatt Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hyatt HotelsHyatt Hotels Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hyatt Hotels Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hyatt Hotels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hyatt Hotels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 157.31 and 161.03, respectively. We have considered Hyatt Hotels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
159.62
157.31
Downside
159.17
Expected Value
161.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hyatt Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hyatt Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4447
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.7508
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0197
SAESum of the absolute errors170.547
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hyatt Hotels. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hyatt Hotels. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hyatt Hotels

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hyatt Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hyatt Hotels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
157.77159.62161.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
143.66163.74165.59
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
151.39156.56161.72
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
114.14125.43139.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hyatt Hotels. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hyatt Hotels' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hyatt Hotels' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hyatt Hotels.

Other Forecasting Options for Hyatt Hotels

For every potential investor in Hyatt, whether a beginner or expert, Hyatt Hotels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hyatt Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hyatt. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hyatt Hotels' price trends.

Hyatt Hotels Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hyatt Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hyatt Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hyatt Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hyatt Hotels Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hyatt Hotels' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hyatt Hotels' current price.

Hyatt Hotels Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hyatt Hotels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hyatt Hotels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hyatt Hotels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hyatt Hotels entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hyatt Hotels Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hyatt Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hyatt Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hyatt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Hyatt Hotels Investors Sentiment

The influence of Hyatt Hotels' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hyatt. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hyatt Hotels' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hyatt. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hyatt can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hyatt Hotels. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hyatt Hotels' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hyatt Hotels' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hyatt Hotels' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hyatt Hotels.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hyatt Hotels in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hyatt Hotels' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hyatt Hotels options trading.

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When determining whether Hyatt Hotels offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hyatt Hotels' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hyatt Hotels Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hyatt Hotels Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hyatt Hotels to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Hyatt Stock please use our How to Invest in Hyatt Hotels guide.
Note that the Hyatt Hotels information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hyatt Hotels' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.

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Is Hyatt Hotels' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hyatt Hotels. If investors know Hyatt will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hyatt Hotels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.91)
Dividend Share
0.45
Earnings Share
2.04
Revenue Per Share
63.579
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.131
The market value of Hyatt Hotels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hyatt that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hyatt Hotels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hyatt Hotels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hyatt Hotels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hyatt Hotels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hyatt Hotels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hyatt Hotels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hyatt Hotels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.