Koss Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

KOSS Stock  USD 2.57  0.07  2.65%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koss Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 2.57 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.05  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.84. Koss Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Koss stock prices and determine the direction of Koss Corporation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Koss' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Koss' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Koss' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Koss fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Koss to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Koss' Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 39.01 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 3.61 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 7.8 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 8.3 M in 2024.
Most investors in Koss cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Koss' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Koss' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Koss simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Koss Corporation are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Koss prices get older.

Koss Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Koss Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 2.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Koss Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Koss' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Koss Stock Forecast Pattern

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Koss Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Koss' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Koss' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.61 and 4.53, respectively. We have considered Koss' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.57
2.57
Expected Value
4.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Koss stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Koss stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.409
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0128
MADMean absolute deviation0.0466
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0165
SAESum of the absolute errors2.84
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Koss Corporation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Koss observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Koss

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Koss. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Koss' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.602.564.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.802.764.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Koss. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Koss' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Koss' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Koss.

Other Forecasting Options for Koss

For every potential investor in Koss, whether a beginner or expert, Koss' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Koss Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Koss. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Koss' price trends.

Koss Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Koss stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Koss could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Koss by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Koss Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Koss' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Koss' current price.

Koss Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Koss stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Koss shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Koss stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Koss Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Koss Risk Indicators

The analysis of Koss' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Koss' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting koss stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Koss is a strong investment it is important to analyze Koss' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Koss' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Koss Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Koss to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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Is Koss' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Koss. If investors know Koss will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Koss listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.371
Earnings Share
(0.12)
Revenue Per Share
1.429
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.024
Return On Assets
(0.03)
The market value of Koss is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Koss that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Koss' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Koss' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Koss' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Koss' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Koss' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Koss is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Koss' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.