Lowes Companies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
LOW Stock | USD 231.23 0.99 0.43% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lowes Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 232.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.26. Lowes Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lowes Companies stock prices and determine the direction of Lowes Companies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lowes Companies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lowes Companies to cross-verify your projections. Lowes |
Most investors in Lowes Companies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lowes Companies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lowes Companies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Lowes Companies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Lowes Companies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Lowes Companies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lowes Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 232.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.56, mean absolute percentage error of 10.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lowes Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lowes Companies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lowes Companies Stock Forecast Pattern
Backtest Lowes Companies | Lowes Companies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lowes Companies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lowes Companies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lowes Companies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 230.77 and 233.42, respectively. We have considered Lowes Companies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lowes Companies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lowes Companies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5028 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5617 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 156.2626 |
Predictive Modules for Lowes Companies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lowes Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lowes Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lowes Companies
For every potential investor in Lowes, whether a beginner or expert, Lowes Companies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lowes Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lowes. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lowes Companies' price trends.Lowes Companies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lowes Companies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lowes Companies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lowes Companies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lowes Companies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lowes Companies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lowes Companies' current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Lowes Companies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lowes Companies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lowes Companies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lowes Companies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lowes Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lowes Companies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lowes Companies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lowes Companies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lowes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
Variance | 1.74 | |||
Downside Variance | 1.44 | |||
Semi Variance | 1.05 | |||
Expected Short fall | (1.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lowes Companies to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Lowes Stock please use our How to Invest in Lowes Companies guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Lowes Stock analysis
When running Lowes Companies' price analysis, check to measure Lowes Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lowes Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Lowes Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lowes Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lowes Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lowes Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing | |
Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world |
Is Lowes Companies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lowes Companies. If investors know Lowes will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lowes Companies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Lowes Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lowes that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lowes Companies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lowes Companies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lowes Companies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lowes Companies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lowes Companies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lowes Companies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lowes Companies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.