Lowes Companies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
LOW Stock | USD 228.79 0.07 0.03% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lowes Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 223.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.70. Lowes Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lowes Companies stock prices and determine the direction of Lowes Companies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lowes Companies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Lowes Companies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lowes Companies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lowes Companies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lowes Companies to cross-verify your projections. Lowes |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Lowes Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lowes Companies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lowes Companies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lowes Companies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lowes Companies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Lowes Companies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lowes Companies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lowes. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Lowes Companies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lowes Companies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lowes Companies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Lowes Companies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Lowes Companies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Lowes Companies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lowes Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 223.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.67, mean absolute percentage error of 11.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lowes Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lowes Companies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lowes Companies Stock Forecast Pattern
Backtest Lowes Companies | Lowes Companies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lowes Companies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lowes Companies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lowes Companies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 222.08 and 224.80, respectively. We have considered Lowes Companies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lowes Companies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lowes Companies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5521 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6672 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 162.6984 |
Predictive Modules for Lowes Companies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lowes Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lowes Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lowes Companies
For every potential investor in Lowes, whether a beginner or expert, Lowes Companies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lowes Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lowes. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lowes Companies' price trends.Lowes Companies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lowes Companies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lowes Companies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lowes Companies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lowes Companies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lowes Companies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lowes Companies' current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Lowes Companies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lowes Companies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lowes Companies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lowes Companies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lowes Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Accumulation Distribution | 40663.71 | |||
Daily Balance Of Power | (0.01) | |||
Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
Day Median Price | 229.92 | |||
Day Typical Price | 229.54 | |||
Price Action Indicator | (1.17) | |||
Period Momentum Indicator | (0.07) | |||
Relative Strength Index | 76.39 |
Lowes Companies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lowes Companies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lowes Companies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lowes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
Variance | 1.79 | |||
Downside Variance | 1.58 | |||
Semi Variance | 1.31 | |||
Expected Short fall | (1.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Lowes Companies Investors Sentiment
The influence of Lowes Companies' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Lowes. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Lowes Companies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lowes. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lowes can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lowes Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Lowes Companies' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Lowes Companies' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Lowes Companies' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Lowes Companies.
Lowes Companies Implied Volatility | 136.86 |
Lowes Companies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lowes Companies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lowes Companies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lowes Companies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lowes Companies' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lowes Companies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lowes Companies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lowes Companies options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lowes Companies to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Lowes Stock please use our How to Invest in Lowes Companies guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Lowes Stock analysis
When running Lowes Companies' price analysis, check to measure Lowes Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lowes Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Lowes Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lowes Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lowes Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lowes Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lowes Companies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lowes Companies. If investors know Lowes will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lowes Companies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.118 | Dividend Share 4.35 | Earnings Share 13.2 | Revenue Per Share 148.414 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Lowes Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lowes that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lowes Companies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lowes Companies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lowes Companies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lowes Companies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lowes Companies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lowes Companies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lowes Companies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.