Nio Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NIO Stock  USD 4.50  0.17  3.64%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nio Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 4.23 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.18  and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.08. Nio Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nio stock prices and determine the direction of Nio Class A's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Nio's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Nio's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Nio fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nio to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Nio's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 2.43, while Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 1.64. . As of the 29th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 1.4 B. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to drop to about (13.8 B).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Nio Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Nio's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Nio's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Nio stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Nio's open interest, investors have to compare it to Nio's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Nio is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Nio. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Nio cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nio's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nio's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Nio is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Nio Class A value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Nio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nio Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 4.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nio Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest NioNio Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Nio Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.48 and 7.98, respectively. We have considered Nio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.50
4.23
Expected Value
7.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9499
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1787
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0299
SAESum of the absolute errors11.0764
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Nio Class A. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Nio. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Nio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nio Class A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.794.508.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.424.137.84
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.8415.2116.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nio Class A.

Other Forecasting Options for Nio

For every potential investor in Nio, whether a beginner or expert, Nio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nio's price trends.

Nio Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nio Class A Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nio's current price.

Nio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nio Class A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nio Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Nio Investors Sentiment

The influence of Nio's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Nio. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Nio's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Nio. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nio can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nio Class A. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Nio's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Nio's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Nio's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Nio.

Nio Implied Volatility

    
  78.18  
Nio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nio Class A stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nio's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nio in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nio's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nio options trading.

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When determining whether Nio Class A offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Nio's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Nio Class A Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Nio Class A Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nio to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

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When running Nio's price analysis, check to measure Nio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nio is operating at the current time. Most of Nio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nio. If investors know Nio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.73)
Revenue Per Share
32.713
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.065
Return On Assets
(0.13)
Return On Equity
(0.73)
The market value of Nio Class A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.