Rite Aid Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

RADDelisted Stock  USD 0.17  0.01  5.56%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rite Aid on the next trading day is expected to be 0.17 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.06  and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.81. Rite Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Rite Aid stock prices and determine the direction of Rite Aid's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Rite Aid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
  
Most investors in Rite Aid cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Rite Aid's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Rite Aid's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Rite Aid is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Rite Aid value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Rite Aid Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rite Aid on the next trading day is expected to be 0.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rite Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rite Aid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rite Aid Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rite Aid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rite Aid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4843
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0624
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1892
SAESum of the absolute errors3.8069
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Rite Aid. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Rite Aid. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Rite Aid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rite Aid. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rite Aid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.170.170.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.160.160.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rite Aid. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rite Aid's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rite Aid's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rite Aid.

Rite Aid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rite Aid stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rite Aid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rite Aid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rite Aid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rite Aid stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rite Aid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rite Aid stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rite Aid entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rite Aid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rite Aid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rite Aid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rite stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Rite Aid in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Rite Aid's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Rite Aid options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
Note that the Rite Aid information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Rite Aid's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

Other Consideration for investing in Rite Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Rite Aid check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Rite Aid's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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