Vipshop Holdings Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

VIPS Stock  USD 16.55  0.09  0.55%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vipshop Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 16.66 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.38  and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.17. Vipshop Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vipshop Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Vipshop Holdings Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vipshop Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Vipshop Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vipshop Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vipshop Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vipshop Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 13.97 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 3.43 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 7.6 B in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 618.3 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Vipshop Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vipshop Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vipshop Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vipshop Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vipshop Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Vipshop Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vipshop Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vipshop. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Vipshop Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vipshop Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vipshop Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Vipshop Holdings - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Vipshop Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Vipshop Holdings price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Vipshop Holdings.

Vipshop Holdings Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vipshop Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 16.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.17.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vipshop Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vipshop Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vipshop Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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Vipshop Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vipshop Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vipshop Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.61 and 19.71, respectively. We have considered Vipshop Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.55
16.66
Expected Value
19.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vipshop Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vipshop Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1185
MADMean absolute deviation0.3758
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0227
SAESum of the absolute errors22.17
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Vipshop Holdings observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vipshop Holdings Limited observations.

Predictive Modules for Vipshop Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vipshop Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vipshop Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.4616.5119.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.6517.7020.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.7517.2418.72
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.0418.7220.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vipshop Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vipshop Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vipshop Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vipshop Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Vipshop Holdings

For every potential investor in Vipshop, whether a beginner or expert, Vipshop Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vipshop Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vipshop. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vipshop Holdings' price trends.

Vipshop Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vipshop Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vipshop Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vipshop Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vipshop Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vipshop Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vipshop Holdings' current price.

Vipshop Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vipshop Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vipshop Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vipshop Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vipshop Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vipshop Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vipshop Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vipshop Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vipshop stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Vipshop Holdings Investors Sentiment

The influence of Vipshop Holdings' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Vipshop. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Vipshop Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vipshop. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vipshop can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vipshop Holdings Limited. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Vipshop Holdings' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Vipshop Holdings' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Vipshop Holdings' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Vipshop Holdings.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vipshop Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vipshop Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vipshop Holdings options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Vipshop Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vipshop Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vipshop Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vipshop Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vipshop Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

Complementary Tools for Vipshop Stock analysis

When running Vipshop Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Vipshop Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vipshop Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Vipshop Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vipshop Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vipshop Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vipshop Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vipshop Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vipshop Holdings. If investors know Vipshop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vipshop Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.461
Dividend Share
3.049
Earnings Share
2
Revenue Per Share
203.903
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.092
The market value of Vipshop Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vipshop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vipshop Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vipshop Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vipshop Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vipshop Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vipshop Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vipshop Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vipshop Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.