Walgreens Boots Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

WBA Stock  USD 21.69  0.67  3.19%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Walgreens Boots Alliance on the next trading day is expected to be 21.62 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.35  and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.43. Walgreens Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Walgreens Boots stock prices and determine the direction of Walgreens Boots Alliance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Walgreens Boots' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Walgreens Boots' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Walgreens Boots' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Walgreens Boots fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Walgreens Boots to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current year's Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 12.82. The current year's Payables Turnover is expected to grow to 11.67. The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 807.2 M, whereas Net Loss is projected to grow to (3.4 B).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Walgreens Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Walgreens Boots' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Walgreens Boots' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Walgreens Boots stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Walgreens Boots' open interest, investors have to compare it to Walgreens Boots' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Walgreens Boots is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Walgreens. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Walgreens Boots cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Walgreens Boots' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Walgreens Boots' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Walgreens Boots is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Walgreens Boots Alliance value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Walgreens Boots Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Walgreens Boots Alliance on the next trading day is expected to be 21.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.43.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Walgreens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Walgreens Boots' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Walgreens Boots Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Walgreens BootsWalgreens Boots Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Walgreens Boots Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Walgreens Boots' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Walgreens Boots' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.43 and 23.81, respectively. We have considered Walgreens Boots' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.69
21.62
Expected Value
23.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Walgreens Boots stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Walgreens Boots stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3623
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3457
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0155
SAESum of the absolute errors21.4339
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Walgreens Boots Alliance. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Walgreens Boots. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Walgreens Boots

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Walgreens Boots Alliance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Walgreens Boots' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.5021.6923.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.3722.5624.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.3321.0121.68
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.7626.1128.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Walgreens Boots. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Walgreens Boots' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Walgreens Boots' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Walgreens Boots Alliance.

Other Forecasting Options for Walgreens Boots

For every potential investor in Walgreens, whether a beginner or expert, Walgreens Boots' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Walgreens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Walgreens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Walgreens Boots' price trends.

Walgreens Boots Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Walgreens Boots stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Walgreens Boots could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Walgreens Boots by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Walgreens Boots Alliance Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Walgreens Boots' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Walgreens Boots' current price.

Walgreens Boots Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Walgreens Boots stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Walgreens Boots shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Walgreens Boots stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Walgreens Boots Alliance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Walgreens Boots Risk Indicators

The analysis of Walgreens Boots' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Walgreens Boots' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting walgreens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Walgreens Boots Investors Sentiment

The influence of Walgreens Boots' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Walgreens. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Walgreens Boots' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Walgreens. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Walgreens can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Walgreens Boots Alliance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Walgreens Boots' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Walgreens Boots' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Walgreens Boots' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Walgreens Boots.

Walgreens Boots Implied Volatility

    
  76.77  
Walgreens Boots' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Walgreens Boots Alliance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Walgreens Boots' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Walgreens Boots stock will not fluctuate a lot when Walgreens Boots' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Walgreens Boots in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Walgreens Boots' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Walgreens Boots options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Walgreens Boots Alliance offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Walgreens Boots' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Walgreens Boots Alliance Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Walgreens Boots Alliance Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Walgreens Boots to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Walgreens Boots Alliance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Walgreens Boots' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Walgreens Stock analysis

When running Walgreens Boots' price analysis, check to measure Walgreens Boots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Walgreens Boots is operating at the current time. Most of Walgreens Boots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Walgreens Boots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Walgreens Boots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Walgreens Boots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Walgreens Boots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Walgreens Boots. If investors know Walgreens will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Walgreens Boots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.59)
Dividend Share
1.92
Earnings Share
0.66
Revenue Per Share
165.003
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.1
The market value of Walgreens Boots Alliance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Walgreens that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Walgreens Boots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Walgreens Boots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Walgreens Boots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Walgreens Boots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Walgreens Boots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Walgreens Boots is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Walgreens Boots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.