American Express Stock Price Prediction

AXP Stock  USD 227.69  0.06  0.03%   
The relative strength indicator of American Express' the stock price is slightly above 62. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling American, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

62

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
American Express stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Express shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Express' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Express and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Express' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Express, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Express' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.263
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.71
EPS Estimate Current Year
12.8
EPS Estimate Next Year
14.74
Wall Street Target Price
208.2
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Express based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Express over a specific investment horizon. Using American Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Express from the perspective of American Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Express using American Express' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Express' stock price.

American Express Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in American Express' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Express stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long American Express may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Express and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Express with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
176.3063
Short Percent
0.0134
Short Ratio
2.63
Shares Short Prior Month
M
50 Day MA
211.2242

American Express Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to American Express' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Express. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Express' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Express.

American Express Implied Volatility

    
  20.33  
American Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Express' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Express. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Express to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Express after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 227.69  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Express will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.27% per day over the life of the 2024-04-05 option contract. With American Express trading at USD 227.69, that is roughly USD 2.89 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Express' daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Express options at the current volatility level of 20.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in American Stock, please use our How to Invest in American Express guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
217.39218.70250.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
226.66227.97229.29
Details
30 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
166.02182.44202.51
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.472.983.34
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Express.

American Express After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Express' historical news coverage. American Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 226.38 and 229.00, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
227.69
226.38
Downside
227.69
After-hype Price
229.00
Upside
American Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Express is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Express Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.33 
1.33
 0.00  
  0.37 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
227.69
227.69
0.00 
13,300  
Notes

American Express Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March American Express is traded for 227.69. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.37. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Express is about 118.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 228.06. About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.57. American Express recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of April 2024. The firm had 10000:8753 split on the 3rd of October 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in American Stock, please use our How to Invest in American Express guide.

American Express Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Express' future price movements. Getting to know how American Express rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NISNNisun International Enterprise 0.09 1 per month 3.19  0.09  6.38 (5.46) 22.26 
IBMInternational Business Machines 1.09 10 per month 0.88  0.08  2.58 (2.04) 11.73 
MCDMcDonalds 0.95 9 per month 0.00 (0.17) 1.54 (1.42) 5.99 
AAAlcoa Corp 0.54 9 per month 3.19 (0.02) 5.35 (5.45) 15.82 
CVXChevron Corp(0.09)8 per month 1.04 (0.04) 1.99 (1.96) 5.97 
TRVThe Travelers Companies 0.86 11 per month 0.00  0.20  1.32 (0.93) 8.06 
GEGeneral Electric 2.02 9 per month 0.64  0.29  2.26 (1.50) 6.39 
MMM3M Company 3.12 9 per month 2.34 (0.06) 2.65 (2.11) 12.71 
DISWalt Disney 1.56 8 per month 0.74  0.18  2.73 (1.94) 13.99 

American Express Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Express Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Express stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Express, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Express based on analysis of American Express hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Express's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Express's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio16.0114.7716.4413.38
Short Term Coverage Ratios7.3221.0814.3515.07

Story Coverage note for American Express

The number of cover stories for American Express depends on current market conditions and American Express' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Express is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Express' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American Express Short Properties

American Express' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Express' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Express often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding736 M
Cash And Short Term Investments86.1 B
When determining whether American Express is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if American Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about American Express Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about American Express Stock:
Check out American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in American Stock, please use our How to Invest in American Express guide.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Express' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Express. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.263
Dividend Share
2.4
Earnings Share
11.21
Revenue Per Share
75.635
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.092
The market value of American Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.