Five Below Stock Price Prediction
| FIVE Stock | USD 152.81 4.67 2.97% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
34
Oversold | Overbought |
Five Below stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Five Below shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Five Below's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Five Below and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Five Below's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Five Below, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Five Below's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.188 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.55 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.47 | Wall Street Target Price 212.46 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 3.78 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Five Below based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Five stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Five Below over a specific investment horizon. Using Five Below hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Five Below from the perspective of Five Below response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Five Below using Five Below's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Five using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Five Below's stock price.
Five Below Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Five Below's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Five. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Five Below stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Five Below may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Five Below and may potentially protect profits, hedge Five Below with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 185.109 | Short Percent 0.0843 | Short Ratio 4.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.2 M | 50 Day MA 186.7054 |
Five Below Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Five Below's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Five. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Five can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Five Below. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Five Below's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Five Below.
Five Below Implied Volatility | 79.99 |
Five Below's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Five Below stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Five Below's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Five Below stock will not fluctuate a lot when Five Below's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Five Below. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Five Below to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Five because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Five Below after-hype prediction price | USD 153.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Five contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Five Below will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.0% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Five Below trading at USD 152.81, that is roughly USD 7.64 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Five Below's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Five Below options at the current volatility level of 79.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Five |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Below's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Five Below After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Five Below at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Five Below or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Five Below, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Five Below Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Five Below's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Five Below's historical news coverage. Five Below's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 150.94 and 156.16, respectively. We have considered Five Below's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Five Below is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Five Below is based on 3 months time horizon.
Five Below Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Five Below is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Five Below backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Five Below, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.59 | 0.72 | 2.30 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
152.81 | 153.55 | 0.48 |
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Five Below Hype Timeline
Five Below is currently traded for 152.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.72, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.3. Five is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 153.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 108.37%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.48%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Five Below is about 33.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 150.51. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.56 B. Net Income was 301.11 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.1 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Five Below Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Five Below Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Five Below's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Five Below's future price movements. Getting to know how Five Below's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Five Below may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RH | RH | (17.42) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.45 | (5.00) | 27.04 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | 0.73 | 10 per month | 1.74 | (0.01) | 3.01 | (2.78) | 7.78 | |
| AZO | AutoZone | (13.16) | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.1 | 1.92 | (1.99) | 8.78 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | (0.82) | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.19 | 3.25 | (3.39) | 22.86 |
Five Below Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Five price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Five using various technical indicators. When you analyze Five charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Five Below Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Five Below stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Five Below, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Five Below based on analysis of Five Below hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Five Below's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Five Below's related companies. | 2010 | 2014 | 2020 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 4.15 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5.67 | PTB Ratio | 16.71 | 8.32 | 6.34 | 10.37 |
Story Coverage note for Five Below
The number of cover stories for Five Below depends on current market conditions and Five Below's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Five Below is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Five Below's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Five Below Short Properties
Five Below's future price predictability will typically decrease when Five Below's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Five Below often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Five Below's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Below's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 460.1 M |
Check out Five Below Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Five Stock refer to our How to Trade Five Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
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When running Five Below's price analysis, check to measure Five Below's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Below is operating at the current time. Most of Five Below's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Below's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Below's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Below to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Five Below's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Below. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Below listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.188 | Earnings Share 5.41 | Revenue Per Share 64.148 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.191 | Return On Assets 0.067 |
The market value of Five Below is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Below's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Below's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Below's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Below's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Below's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Below is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Below's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.