Jumia Technologies Ag Stock Price Prediction
| JMIA Stock | USD 3.94 0.12 2.96% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Jumia Technologies stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Jumia Technologies shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Jumia Technologies' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Jumia Technologies and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Jumia Technologies' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Jumia Technologies AG, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Jumia Technologies' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Current Year (0.98) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.34) | Wall Street Target Price 4 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Jumia Technologies based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Jumia stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Jumia Technologies over a specific investment horizon. Using Jumia Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jumia Technologies AG from the perspective of Jumia Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Jumia Technologies using Jumia Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Jumia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Jumia Technologies' stock price.
Jumia Technologies Implied Volatility | 93.67 |
Jumia Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Jumia Technologies AG stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Jumia Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Jumia Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Jumia Technologies' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Jumia Technologies. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Jumia Technologies to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Jumia because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Jumia Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 3.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Jumia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Jumia Technologies AG will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.85% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Jumia Technologies trading at USD 3.94, that is roughly USD 0.23 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Jumia Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Jumia Technologies AG options at the current volatility level of 93.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Jumia |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jumia Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Jumia Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Jumia Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jumia Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jumia Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Jumia Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Jumia Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jumia Technologies' historical news coverage. Jumia Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 11.31, respectively. We have considered Jumia Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Jumia Technologies is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jumia Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Jumia Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Jumia Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jumia Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jumia Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.66 | 7.50 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.94 | 3.81 | 3.30 |
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Jumia Technologies Hype Timeline
Jumia Technologies is currently traded for 3.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.26. Jumia is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.3%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.66%. The volatility of related hype on Jumia Technologies is about 1880.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.20. About 17.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.98. Jumia Technologies had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Jumia Technologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Jumia Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Jumia Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jumia Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Jumia Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jumia Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival | 0.81 | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.15 | 3.49 | (2.90) | 11.59 | |
| HIBB | Hibbett Sports | 1.29 | 8 per month | 2.49 | 0.04 | 3.78 | (4.05) | 12.41 | |
| CTRN | Citi Trends | (0.26) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.72 | (4.82) | 13.19 | |
| ZUMZ | Zumiez Inc | 0.41 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.19 | (3.51) | 11.86 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.16) | 7 per month | 1.93 | (0.03) | 2.71 | (2.96) | 9.04 | |
| GCO | Genesco | 0.06 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.36 | (5.48) | 16.76 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 1.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.02 | (5.72) | 35.74 | |
| PLCE | Childrens Place | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 16.46 | (16.45) | 99.19 |
Jumia Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Jumia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jumia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jumia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Jumia Technologies Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Jumia Technologies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Jumia Technologies AG, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Jumia Technologies based on analysis of Jumia Technologies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Jumia Technologies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Jumia Technologies's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 47.6 | 63.0 | 57.37 | 62.07 | PTB Ratio | 2.67 | 1.84 | 5.14 | 4.89 |
Story Coverage note for Jumia Technologies
The number of cover stories for Jumia Technologies depends on current market conditions and Jumia Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jumia Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jumia Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Jumia Technologies Short Properties
Jumia Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Jumia Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Jumia Technologies AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Jumia Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jumia Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 120.6 M |
Check out Jumia Technologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Jumia Stock analysis
When running Jumia Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Jumia Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jumia Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Jumia Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jumia Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jumia Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jumia Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Jumia Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jumia Technologies. If investors know Jumia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jumia Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.98) | Revenue Per Share 1.847 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) | Return On Assets (0.18) | Return On Equity (0.82) |
The market value of Jumia Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jumia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jumia Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jumia Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jumia Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jumia Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jumia Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jumia Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jumia Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.