Mcdonalds Stock Price Prediction
| MCD Stock | USD 275.58 3.59 1.32% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
26
Oversold | Overbought |
McDonalds stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of McDonalds shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of McDonalds' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of McDonalds and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from McDonalds' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with McDonalds, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting McDonalds' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.083 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.78 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.4 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.52 | Wall Street Target Price 324.29 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of McDonalds based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The McDonalds stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on McDonalds over a specific investment horizon. Using McDonalds hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of McDonalds from the perspective of McDonalds response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards McDonalds using McDonalds' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards McDonalds using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of McDonalds' stock price.
McDonalds Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in McDonalds' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards McDonalds. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of McDonalds stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long McDonalds may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about McDonalds and may potentially protect profits, hedge McDonalds with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 281.6005 | Short Percent 0.0112 | Short Ratio 2.53 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.6 M | 50 Day MA 283.241 |
McDonalds Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to McDonalds' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in McDonalds. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding McDonalds can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around McDonalds. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of McDonalds' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about McDonalds.
McDonalds Implied Volatility | 18.17 |
McDonalds' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of McDonalds stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if McDonalds' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that McDonalds stock will not fluctuate a lot when McDonalds' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in McDonalds. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in McDonalds to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying McDonalds because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
McDonalds after-hype prediction price | USD 275.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current McDonalds contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that McDonalds will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.14% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With McDonalds trading at USD 275.58, that is roughly USD 3.13 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating McDonalds' daily price movement you should consider acquiring McDonalds options at the current volatility level of 18.17%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
McDonalds |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of McDonalds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
McDonalds After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of McDonalds at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in McDonalds or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of McDonalds, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
McDonalds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting McDonalds' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on McDonalds' historical news coverage. McDonalds' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 274.31 and 276.39, respectively. We have considered McDonalds' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
McDonalds is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of McDonalds is based on 3 months time horizon.
McDonalds Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as McDonalds is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading McDonalds backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with McDonalds, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.06 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 6 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
275.58 | 275.35 | 0.08 |
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McDonalds Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April McDonalds is traded for 275.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.47. McDonalds is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 275.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 65.03%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on McDonalds is about 27.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 275.11. About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.93. McDonalds recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.56. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 8th of March 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out McDonalds Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.McDonalds Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to McDonalds' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict McDonalds' future price movements. Getting to know how McDonalds' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how McDonalds may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill | (41.46) | 8 per month | 0.48 | 0.18 | 2.25 | (1.34) | 8.95 | |
| BROS | Dutch Bros | (0.33) | 10 per month | 2.00 | 0.02 | 4.03 | (3.59) | 11.67 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza | (3.41) | 9 per month | 1.27 | 0.07 | 2.14 | (1.96) | 10.39 | |
| YUM | Yum Brands | (0.67) | 11 per month | 0.79 | 0.03 | 1.55 | (1.69) | 4.09 | |
| SBUX | Starbucks | 0.60 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.67 | (1.68) | 5.85 | |
| WING | Wingstop | (3.37) | 13 per month | 2.11 | 0.13 | 3.68 | (4.36) | 13.23 | |
| SHAK | Shake Shack | 0.49 | 10 per month | 1.89 | 0.13 | 3.95 | (3.72) | 31.94 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.62 | (3.22) | 7.95 | |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | (2.36) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.63 | (1.85) | 9.35 | |
| YUMC | Yum China Holdings | 0.28 | 11 per month | 2.13 | 0.02 | 4.04 | (3.26) | 15.41 | |
| WEN | The Wendys Co | (0.26) | 9 per month | 1.21 | (0.04) | 1.75 | (2.08) | 5.26 | |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.99 | (2.39) | 6.90 | |
| JACK | Jack In The | (0.61) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.54 | (3.55) | 8.33 |
McDonalds Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine McDonalds price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for McDonalds using various technical indicators. When you analyze McDonalds charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About McDonalds Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of McDonalds stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as McDonalds, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of McDonalds based on analysis of McDonalds hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to McDonalds's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to McDonalds's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0196 | 0.0215 | 0.021 | 0.0149 | Price To Sales Ratio | 8.61 | 8.37 | 8.47 | 8.89 |
Story Coverage note for McDonalds
The number of cover stories for McDonalds depends on current market conditions and McDonalds' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that McDonalds is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about McDonalds' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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McDonalds Short Properties
McDonalds' future price predictability will typically decrease when McDonalds' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of McDonalds often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential McDonalds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. McDonalds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 732.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.6 B |
Check out McDonalds Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade McDonalds Stock refer to our How to Trade McDonalds Stock guide.Note that the McDonalds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other McDonalds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Complementary Tools for McDonalds Stock analysis
When running McDonalds' price analysis, check to measure McDonalds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy McDonalds is operating at the current time. Most of McDonalds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of McDonalds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move McDonalds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of McDonalds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is McDonalds' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of McDonalds. If investors know McDonalds will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about McDonalds listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.083 | Dividend Share 6.23 | Earnings Share 11.56 | Revenue Per Share 35.024 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 |
The market value of McDonalds is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of McDonalds that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of McDonalds' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is McDonalds' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because McDonalds' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect McDonalds' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between McDonalds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if McDonalds is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, McDonalds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.