Moodys Stock Price Prediction

MCO Stock  USD 393.03  2.79  0.71%   
As of today, the RSI of Moodys' share price is approaching 48. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Moodys, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

48

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Moodys stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Moodys shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Moodys' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Moodys and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Moodys' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Moodys, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Moodys' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.382
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.83
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.56
EPS Estimate Next Year
12.27
Wall Street Target Price
399.24
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Moodys based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Moodys stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Moodys over a specific investment horizon. Using Moodys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Moodys from the perspective of Moodys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Moodys using Moodys' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Moodys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Moodys' stock price.

Moodys Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Moodys' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Moodys. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Moodys stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Moodys may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Moodys and may potentially protect profits, hedge Moodys with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
356.0839
Short Percent
0.008
Short Ratio
1.71
Shares Short Prior Month
1.2 M
50 Day MA
387.215

Moodys Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Moodys' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Moodys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moodys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moodys. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Moodys' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Moodys.

Moodys Implied Volatility

    
  19.32  
Moodys' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Moodys stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Moodys' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Moodys stock will not fluctuate a lot when Moodys' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Moodys. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Moodys to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Moodys because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Moodys after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 393.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Moodys contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Moodys will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.21% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Moodys trading at USD 393.03, that is roughly USD 4.75 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Moodys' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Moodys options at the current volatility level of 19.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Moodys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Moodys Stock, please use our How to Invest in Moodys guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moodys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
336.55338.01432.33
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
379.55381.01382.47
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
333.97367.00407.37
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.482.833.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moodys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moodys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moodys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Moodys.

Moodys After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Moodys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Moodys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Moodys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Moodys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Moodys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Moodys' historical news coverage. Moodys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 391.57 and 394.49, respectively. We have considered Moodys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
393.03
391.57
Downside
393.03
After-hype Price
394.49
Upside
Moodys is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Moodys is based on 3 months time horizon.

Moodys Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Moodys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Moodys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Moodys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
1.44
  0.10 
  0.01 
8 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
393.03
393.03
0.00 
88.89  
Notes

Moodys Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March Moodys is traded for 393.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Moodys is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 88.89%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Moodys is about 1004.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 393.04. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.33. Moodys recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.74. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 19th of May 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Moodys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Moodys Stock, please use our How to Invest in Moodys guide.

Moodys Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Moodys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Moodys' future price movements. Getting to know how Moodys rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Moodys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Moodys Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Moodys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moodys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Moodys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Moodys Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Moodys stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Moodys, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Moodys based on analysis of Moodys hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Moodys's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Moodys's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio32.8837.2944.5246.75
Short Term Coverage Ratios19.113.9119.9220.91

Story Coverage note for Moodys

The number of cover stories for Moodys depends on current market conditions and Moodys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Moodys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Moodys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Moodys Short Properties

Moodys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Moodys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Moodys often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Moodys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moodys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding184 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.2 B
When determining whether Moodys offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Moodys' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Moodys Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Moodys Stock:
Check out Moodys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Moodys Stock, please use our How to Invest in Moodys guide.
Note that the Moodys information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moodys' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

Complementary Tools for Moodys Stock analysis

When running Moodys' price analysis, check to measure Moodys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moodys is operating at the current time. Most of Moodys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moodys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moodys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moodys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
CEOs Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
AI Portfolio Architect
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Is Moodys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moodys. If investors know Moodys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moodys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.382
Dividend Share
3.08
Earnings Share
8.74
Revenue Per Share
32.293
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.147
The market value of Moodys is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moodys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moodys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moodys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moodys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moodys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moodys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moodys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moodys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.