Sally Beauty Holdings Stock Price Prediction

SBH Stock  USD 12.19  0.34  2.87%   
As of 19th of March 2024, the value of RSI of Sally Beauty's share price is approaching 43. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sally Beauty's stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

43

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Sally Beauty Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Sally Beauty shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Sally Beauty's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Sally Beauty and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Sally Beauty's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Sally Beauty Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Sally Beauty's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.24)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.43
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.87
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.01
Wall Street Target Price
12.6
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Sally Beauty based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Sally stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Sally Beauty over a specific investment horizon. Using Sally Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sally Beauty Holdings from the perspective of Sally Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sally Beauty using Sally Beauty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sally using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sally Beauty's stock price.

Sally Beauty Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Sally Beauty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Sally. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Sally Beauty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Sally Beauty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sally Beauty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sally Beauty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
11.0052
Short Percent
0.2496
Short Ratio
9.53
Shares Short Prior Month
10.7 M
50 Day MA
12.579

Sally Beauty Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Sally Beauty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sally. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sally can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sally Beauty Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sally Beauty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sally Beauty.

Sally Beauty Implied Volatility

    
  42.3  
Sally Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sally Beauty Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sally Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sally Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sally Beauty's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Sally Beauty. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Sally Beauty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Sally because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Sally Beauty after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Sally Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sally Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Sally Beauty in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.2611.2814.30
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.9012.9215.94
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.7411.8013.10
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.380.400.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sally Beauty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sally Beauty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sally Beauty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sally Beauty Holdings.

Sally Beauty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Sally Beauty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sally Beauty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sally Beauty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Sally Beauty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Sally Beauty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sally Beauty's historical news coverage. Sally Beauty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.26 and 15.30, respectively. We have considered Sally Beauty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.19
12.28
After-hype Price
15.30
Upside
Sally Beauty is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sally Beauty Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Sally Beauty Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sally Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sally Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sally Beauty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
3.07
  0.01 
  0.03 
7 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.19
12.28
0.16 
2,047  
Notes

Sally Beauty Hype Timeline

On the 19th of March Sally Beauty Holdings is traded for 12.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Sally is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 12.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.16% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Sally Beauty is about 460.27% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 12.22. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Sally Beauty was at this time reported as 5.16. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.63. Sally Beauty Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 3:2 split on the 23rd of February 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Sally Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Sally Beauty Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Sally Beauty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sally Beauty's future price movements. Getting to know how Sally Beauty rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sally Beauty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MMacys Inc(0.44)8 per month 2.14  0.03  3.72 (3.19) 16.36 
WWayfair 3.27 9 per month 3.22  0.04  9.34 (5.77) 20.42 
DIBS1StdibsCom(0.08)9 per month 2.64  0.1  8.04 (5.79) 17.90 
ANAutoNation 0.80 12 per month 1.72  0.07  3.73 (3.06) 11.27 
BQBoqii Holding Limited(0.01)2 per month 0.00 (0.17) 10.34 (10.81) 58.00 
FLFoot Locker(0.35)9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 6.18 (4.77) 39.34 
HDHome Depot 2.96 7 per month 0.71  0.04  2.02 (1.58) 5.22 
JDJD Inc Adr 0.47 7 per month 3.03  0.02  5.86 (4.87) 19.88 
LELands End(0.06)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.38 (5.44) 16.45 
LLLL Flooring Holdings 0.11 8 per month 0.00 (0.28) 5.66 (5.73) 16.26 

Sally Beauty Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Sally price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sally using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sally charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Sally Beauty Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Sally Beauty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Sally Beauty Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Sally Beauty based on analysis of Sally Beauty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Sally Beauty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Sally Beauty's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio7.574.965.715.42
Short Term Coverage Ratios0.691.611.851.76

Story Coverage note for Sally Beauty

The number of cover stories for Sally Beauty depends on current market conditions and Sally Beauty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sally Beauty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sally Beauty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Sally Beauty Short Properties

Sally Beauty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sally Beauty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sally Beauty Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sally Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sally Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding109.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments123 M
When determining whether Sally Beauty Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Sally Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Sally Beauty Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Sally Beauty Holdings Stock:
Check out Sally Beauty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Sally Beauty Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Sally Beauty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for Sally Stock analysis

When running Sally Beauty's price analysis, check to measure Sally Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sally Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Sally Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sally Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sally Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sally Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Sally Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sally Beauty. If investors know Sally will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sally Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.24)
Earnings Share
1.58
Revenue Per Share
34.591
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
Return On Assets
0.0723
The market value of Sally Beauty Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sally that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sally Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sally Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sally Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sally Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sally Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sally Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sally Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.