Virgin Galactic Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| SPCE Stock | USD 0.86 0.11 11.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
30
Oversold | Overbought |
Virgin Galactic Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Virgin Galactic shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Virgin Galactic's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Virgin Galactic and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Virgin Galactic's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Virgin Galactic Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Virgin Galactic's stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.28) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.98) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.74) | Wall Street Target Price 2.33 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.30) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Virgin Galactic based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Virgin stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Virgin Galactic over a specific investment horizon. Using Virgin Galactic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Virgin Galactic Holdings from the perspective of Virgin Galactic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Virgin Galactic using Virgin Galactic's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Virgin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Virgin Galactic's stock price.
Virgin Galactic Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Virgin Galactic's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Virgin. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Virgin Galactic stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Virgin Galactic may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Virgin Galactic and may potentially protect profits, hedge Virgin Galactic with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 2.19 | Short Percent 0.2552 | Short Ratio 8.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 84.4 M | 50 Day MA 1.5373 |
Virgin Galactic Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Virgin Galactic's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Virgin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Virgin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Virgin Galactic Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Virgin Galactic's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Virgin Galactic.
Virgin Galactic Implied Volatility | 160.64 |
Virgin Galactic's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Virgin Galactic Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Virgin Galactic's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Virgin Galactic stock will not fluctuate a lot when Virgin Galactic's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Virgin Galactic. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Virgin Galactic to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Virgin because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Virgin Galactic after-hype prediction price | USD 0.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Virgin |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virgin Galactic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Virgin Galactic After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Virgin Galactic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Virgin Galactic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Virgin Galactic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Virgin Galactic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Virgin Galactic's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Virgin Galactic's historical news coverage. Virgin Galactic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 5.31, respectively. We have considered Virgin Galactic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Virgin Galactic is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Virgin Galactic Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Virgin Galactic Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Virgin Galactic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Virgin Galactic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Virgin Galactic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.08 | 4.44 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.86 | 0.87 | 10.31 |
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Virgin Galactic Hype Timeline
Virgin Galactic Holdings is at this time traded for 0.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Virgin is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -10.31%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -1.08%. The volatility of related hype on Virgin Galactic is about 44400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.87. About 39.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.85. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Virgin Galactic Holdings recorded a loss per share of 1.49. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Virgin Galactic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Virgin Galactic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Virgin Galactic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Virgin Galactic's future price movements. Getting to know how Virgin Galactic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Virgin Galactic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NVCR | Novocure | 0.34 | 10 per month | 3.48 | (0.01) | 9.01 | (6.26) | 26.24 | |
| HUBS | HubSpot | 0.15 | 9 per month | 2.12 | 0.08 | 3.60 | (3.88) | 8.85 | |
| DOCN | DigitalOcean Holdings | (0.47) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.36 | (3.96) | 15.48 | |
| APPN | Appian Corp | 0.39 | 9 per month | 3.13 | 0.02 | 4.87 | (5.33) | 22.44 | |
| RGEN | Repligen | (0.36) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.48 | (3.25) | 10.89 |
Virgin Galactic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Virgin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Virgin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Virgin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Virgin Galactic Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Virgin Galactic stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Virgin Galactic Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Virgin Galactic based on analysis of Virgin Galactic hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Virgin Galactic's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Virgin Galactic's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.007063 | 0.004337 | 0.004988 | 0.009268 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.0K | 397.29 | 121.51 | 115.44 |
Story Coverage note for Virgin Galactic
The number of cover stories for Virgin Galactic depends on current market conditions and Virgin Galactic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Virgin Galactic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Virgin Galactic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Virgin Galactic Short Properties
Virgin Galactic's future price predictability will typically decrease when Virgin Galactic's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Virgin Galactic Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Virgin Galactic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virgin Galactic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 337.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 874 M |
Check out Virgin Galactic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Virgin Galactic Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Virgin Galactic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Virgin Stock analysis
When running Virgin Galactic's price analysis, check to measure Virgin Galactic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virgin Galactic is operating at the current time. Most of Virgin Galactic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virgin Galactic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virgin Galactic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virgin Galactic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Virgin Galactic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Virgin Galactic. If investors know Virgin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Virgin Galactic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.49) | Revenue Per Share 0.02 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.232 | Return On Assets (0.28) | Return On Equity (1.02) |
The market value of Virgin Galactic Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Virgin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Virgin Galactic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Virgin Galactic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Virgin Galactic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Virgin Galactic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virgin Galactic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virgin Galactic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virgin Galactic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.