Aptargroup Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 98.34

ATR Stock  USD 144.66  1.46  1.02%   
AptarGroup's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on AptarGroup. Implied volatility approximates the future value of AptarGroup based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in AptarGroup over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $145.0 is a CALL option contract on AptarGroup's common stock with a strick price of 145.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-25 at 11:53:59 for $2.1 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $4.8. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 19.36. View All AptarGroup options

Closest to current price AptarGroup long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

AptarGroup's future price is the expected price of AptarGroup instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AptarGroup performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out AptarGroup Backtesting, AptarGroup Valuation, AptarGroup Correlation, AptarGroup Hype Analysis, AptarGroup Volatility, AptarGroup History as well as AptarGroup Performance.
To learn how to invest in AptarGroup Stock, please use our How to Invest in AptarGroup guide.
  
At this time, AptarGroup's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to grow to 48.60, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 17.29. Please specify AptarGroup's target price for which you would like AptarGroup odds to be computed.

AptarGroup Target Price Odds to finish below 98.34

The tendency of AptarGroup Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 98.34  or more in 90 days
 144.66 90 days 98.34 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AptarGroup to drop to $ 98.34  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AptarGroup probability density function shows the probability of AptarGroup Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AptarGroup price to stay between $ 98.34  and its current price of $144.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.92 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AptarGroup has a beta of 0.25. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AptarGroup average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AptarGroup will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AptarGroup has an alpha of 0.1786, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   AptarGroup Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AptarGroup

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AptarGroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AptarGroup's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
143.62144.66145.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
130.19164.16165.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
143.60144.64145.68
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
126.04138.50153.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AptarGroup. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AptarGroup's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AptarGroup's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AptarGroup.

AptarGroup Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AptarGroup is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AptarGroup's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AptarGroup, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AptarGroup within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.25
σ
Overall volatility
7.08
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

AptarGroup Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AptarGroup for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AptarGroup can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 22nd of February 2024 AptarGroup paid $ 0.41 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Graphic Packaging Up 15.7 percent in 3 Months More Room to Run

AptarGroup Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AptarGroup Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AptarGroup's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AptarGroup's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding66.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments223.6 M

AptarGroup Technical Analysis

AptarGroup's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AptarGroup Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AptarGroup. In general, you should focus on analyzing AptarGroup Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AptarGroup Predictive Forecast Models

AptarGroup's time-series forecasting models is one of many AptarGroup's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AptarGroup's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AptarGroup

Checking the ongoing alerts about AptarGroup for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AptarGroup help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 22nd of February 2024 AptarGroup paid $ 0.41 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Graphic Packaging Up 15.7 percent in 3 Months More Room to Run
When determining whether AptarGroup is a strong investment it is important to analyze AptarGroup's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AptarGroup's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AptarGroup Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out AptarGroup Backtesting, AptarGroup Valuation, AptarGroup Correlation, AptarGroup Hype Analysis, AptarGroup Volatility, AptarGroup History as well as AptarGroup Performance.
To learn how to invest in AptarGroup Stock, please use our How to Invest in AptarGroup guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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When running AptarGroup's price analysis, check to measure AptarGroup's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AptarGroup is operating at the current time. Most of AptarGroup's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AptarGroup's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AptarGroup's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AptarGroup to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AptarGroup's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AptarGroup. If investors know AptarGroup will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AptarGroup listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.044
Dividend Share
1.58
Earnings Share
4.25
Revenue Per Share
53.149
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.053
The market value of AptarGroup is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AptarGroup that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AptarGroup's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AptarGroup's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AptarGroup's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AptarGroup's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AptarGroup's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AptarGroup is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AptarGroup's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.