Bristol Myers Squibb Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 60.21

BMY Stock  USD 54.23  0.98  1.84%   
Bristol Myers' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Bristol Myers Squibb. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Bristol Myers based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Bristol Myers Squibb over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-05 CALL at $54.0 is a CALL option contract on Bristol Myers' common stock with a strick price of 54.0 expiring on 2024-04-05. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:56:59 for $0.64 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.55, and an ask price of $0.62. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 15.23. View All Bristol options

Closest to current price Bristol long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Bristol Myers' future price is the expected price of Bristol Myers instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Bristol Myers Squibb performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Bristol Myers Backtesting, Bristol Myers Valuation, Bristol Myers Correlation, Bristol Myers Hype Analysis, Bristol Myers Volatility, Bristol Myers History as well as Bristol Myers Performance.
  
At this time, Bristol Myers' Price Earnings Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price To Sales Ratio is likely to rise to 2.98 in 2024, whereas Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 7.28 in 2024. Please specify Bristol Myers' target price for which you would like Bristol Myers odds to be computed.

Bristol Myers Target Price Odds to finish below 60.21

The tendency of Bristol Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 60.21  after 90 days
 54.23 90 days 60.21 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bristol Myers to stay under $ 60.21  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Bristol Myers Squibb probability density function shows the probability of Bristol Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bristol-Myers Squibb price to stay between its current price of $ 54.23  and $ 60.21  at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.47 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Bristol Myers has a beta of 0.51 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bristol Myers average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bristol Myers Squibb will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bristol Myers Squibb has an alpha of 0.0057, implying that it can generate a 0.005681 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Bristol Myers Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Bristol Myers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bristol-Myers Squibb. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bristol Myers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
53.0054.1955.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
48.8162.1363.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
51.9553.1454.33
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
65.1371.5779.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bristol Myers. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bristol Myers' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bristol Myers' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Bristol Myers Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bristol Myers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bristol Myers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bristol Myers Squibb, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bristol Myers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.01
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.51
σ
Overall volatility
1.52
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Bristol Myers Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bristol Myers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bristol-Myers Squibb can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bristol-Myers Squibb is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Bristol-Myers Squibb has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of February 2024 Bristol Myers paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investing.com: Zeposia fails to meet Crohns disease trial goal

Bristol Myers Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bristol Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bristol Myers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bristol Myers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments12.3 B

Bristol Myers Technical Analysis

Bristol Myers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bristol Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bristol Myers Squibb. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bristol Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Bristol Myers Predictive Forecast Models

Bristol Myers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Bristol Myers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bristol Myers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Bristol-Myers Squibb

Checking the ongoing alerts about Bristol Myers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bristol-Myers Squibb help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bristol-Myers Squibb is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Bristol-Myers Squibb has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 1st of February 2024 Bristol Myers paid $ 0.6 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from investing.com: Zeposia fails to meet Crohns disease trial goal
When determining whether Bristol-Myers Squibb offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bristol Myers' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bristol Myers Squibb Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bristol Myers Squibb Stock:

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When running Bristol Myers' price analysis, check to measure Bristol Myers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bristol Myers is operating at the current time. Most of Bristol Myers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bristol Myers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bristol Myers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bristol Myers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bristol Myers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bristol Myers. If investors know Bristol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bristol Myers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.09)
Dividend Share
2.31
Earnings Share
3.93
Revenue Per Share
21.753
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.006
The market value of Bristol-Myers Squibb is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bristol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bristol Myers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bristol Myers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bristol Myers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bristol Myers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bristol Myers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bristol Myers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bristol Myers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.