Conagra Foods Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 35.09

CAG Stock  USD 29.49  0.58  2.01%   
ConAgra Foods' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on ConAgra Foods. Implied volatility approximates the future value of ConAgra Foods based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in ConAgra Foods over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $29.5 is a CALL option contract on ConAgra Foods' common stock with a strick price of 29.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:36:59 for $0.05 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.15. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 8.93. View All ConAgra options

Closest to current price ConAgra long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

ConAgra Foods' future price is the expected price of ConAgra Foods instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ConAgra Foods performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ConAgra Foods Backtesting, ConAgra Foods Valuation, ConAgra Foods Correlation, ConAgra Foods Hype Analysis, ConAgra Foods Volatility, ConAgra Foods History as well as ConAgra Foods Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide.
  
At this time, ConAgra Foods' Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The ConAgra Foods' current Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 12.24, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to 15.04. Please specify ConAgra Foods' target price for which you would like ConAgra Foods odds to be computed.

ConAgra Foods Target Price Odds to finish over 35.09

The tendency of ConAgra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 35.09  or more in 90 days
 29.49 90 days 35.09 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ConAgra Foods to move over $ 35.09  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This ConAgra Foods probability density function shows the probability of ConAgra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ConAgra Foods price to stay between its current price of $ 29.49  and $ 35.09  at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ConAgra Foods has a beta of 0.42 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ConAgra Foods average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ConAgra Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ConAgra Foods has an alpha of 0.0175, implying that it can generate a 0.0175 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   ConAgra Foods Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ConAgra Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConAgra Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ConAgra Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.1029.4830.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.2229.6030.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
27.8429.2230.60
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
27.6330.3633.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ConAgra Foods. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ConAgra Foods' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ConAgra Foods' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ConAgra Foods.

ConAgra Foods Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ConAgra Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ConAgra Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ConAgra Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ConAgra Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.02
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.42
σ
Overall volatility
0.61
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

ConAgra Foods Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ConAgra Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ConAgra Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 9.24 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.05, which is OK given its current industry classification. ConAgra Foods has a current ratio of 0.76, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist ConAgra Foods until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ConAgra Foods' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ConAgra Foods sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ConAgra to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ConAgra Foods' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 87.0% of ConAgra Foods shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 29th of February 2024 ConAgra Foods paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Will Conagra Brands Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report

ConAgra Foods Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ConAgra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ConAgra Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConAgra Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding480.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments93.9 M

ConAgra Foods Technical Analysis

ConAgra Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ConAgra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ConAgra Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing ConAgra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ConAgra Foods Predictive Forecast Models

ConAgra Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many ConAgra Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ConAgra Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ConAgra Foods

Checking the ongoing alerts about ConAgra Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ConAgra Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 9.24 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.05, which is OK given its current industry classification. ConAgra Foods has a current ratio of 0.76, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist ConAgra Foods until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ConAgra Foods' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ConAgra Foods sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ConAgra to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ConAgra Foods' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 87.0% of ConAgra Foods shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 29th of February 2024 ConAgra Foods paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Will Conagra Brands Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report
When determining whether ConAgra Foods is a strong investment it is important to analyze ConAgra Foods' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact ConAgra Foods' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding ConAgra Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out ConAgra Foods Backtesting, ConAgra Foods Valuation, ConAgra Foods Correlation, ConAgra Foods Hype Analysis, ConAgra Foods Volatility, ConAgra Foods History as well as ConAgra Foods Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide.
Note that the ConAgra Foods information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ConAgra Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

Complementary Tools for ConAgra Stock analysis

When running ConAgra Foods' price analysis, check to measure ConAgra Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConAgra Foods is operating at the current time. Most of ConAgra Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConAgra Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConAgra Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConAgra Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ConAgra Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConAgra Foods. If investors know ConAgra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConAgra Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.24)
Dividend Share
1.36
Earnings Share
2.05
Revenue Per Share
25.459
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of ConAgra Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConAgra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConAgra Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConAgra Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConAgra Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConAgra Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConAgra Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ConAgra Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConAgra Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.