Fidelity Intermediate Government Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 11.16
| FSTGX Fund | USD 9.50 0.01 0.11% |
Fidelity |
Fidelity Intermediate Target Price Odds to finish below 11.16
The tendency of Fidelity Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 11.16 after 90 days |
| 9.50 | 90 days | 11.16 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fidelity Intermediate to stay under $ 11.16 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Fidelity Intermediate Government probability density function shows the probability of Fidelity Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fidelity Intermediate price to stay between its current price of $ 9.50 and $ 11.16 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Fidelity Intermediate has a beta of 0.15. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Fidelity Intermediate average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Fidelity Intermediate Government will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Fidelity Intermediate Government has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Fidelity Intermediate Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fidelity Intermediate
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Intermediate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Intermediate's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Intermediate Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fidelity Intermediate is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fidelity Intermediate's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fidelity Intermediate Government, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fidelity Intermediate within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.4 |
Fidelity Intermediate Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fidelity Intermediate for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fidelity Intermediate can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Fidelity Intermediate generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Fidelity Intermediate retains about 6.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Fidelity Intermediate Technical Analysis
Fidelity Intermediate's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fidelity Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fidelity Intermediate Government. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fidelity Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fidelity Intermediate Predictive Forecast Models
Fidelity Intermediate's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fidelity Intermediate's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fidelity Intermediate's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fidelity Intermediate
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fidelity Intermediate for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fidelity Intermediate help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Fidelity Intermediate generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Fidelity Intermediate retains about 6.73% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Check out Fidelity Intermediate Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity Intermediate Correlation, Fidelity Intermediate Hype Analysis, Fidelity Intermediate Volatility, Fidelity Intermediate History as well as Fidelity Intermediate Performance. Note that the Fidelity Intermediate information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fidelity Intermediate's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.