Sally Beauty Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.06

SBH Stock  USD 12.17  0.54  4.64%   
Sally Beauty's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Sally Beauty Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Sally Beauty based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Sally Beauty Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Sally Beauty's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-25 at 12:11:47 for $0.15 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.3, and an ask price of $0.45. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 42.04. View All Sally options

Closest to current price Sally long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Sally Beauty's future price is the expected price of Sally Beauty instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Sally Beauty Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Sally Beauty Backtesting, Sally Beauty Valuation, Sally Beauty Correlation, Sally Beauty Hype Analysis, Sally Beauty Volatility, Sally Beauty History as well as Sally Beauty Performance.
  
As of now, Sally Beauty's Price Book Value Ratio is increasing as compared to previous years. The Sally Beauty's current Price To Book Ratio is estimated to increase to 1.67, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to 5.32. Please specify Sally Beauty's target price for which you would like Sally Beauty odds to be computed.

Sally Beauty Target Price Odds to finish below 4.06

The tendency of Sally Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 4.06  or more in 90 days
 12.17 90 days 4.06 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sally Beauty to drop to $ 4.06  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Sally Beauty Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Sally Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sally Beauty Holdings price to stay between $ 4.06  and its current price of $12.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.7 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.26 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Sally Beauty will likely underperform. Additionally Sally Beauty Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Sally Beauty Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Sally Beauty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sally Beauty Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sally Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.0112.1715.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.9312.0915.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.3312.4815.64
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.7411.8013.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sally Beauty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sally Beauty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sally Beauty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sally Beauty Holdings.

Sally Beauty Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sally Beauty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sally Beauty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sally Beauty Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sally Beauty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.51
β
Beta against NYSE Composite3.26
σ
Overall volatility
0.63
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Sally Beauty Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sally Beauty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sally Beauty Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Sally Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Sally Beauty has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Sally Beauty has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from deadline.com: Regal Parent Cineworld Rounds Out Leadership Team Under CEO Eduardo Acuna

Sally Beauty Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sally Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sally Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sally Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding109.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments123 M

Sally Beauty Technical Analysis

Sally Beauty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sally Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sally Beauty Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sally Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Sally Beauty Predictive Forecast Models

Sally Beauty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sally Beauty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sally Beauty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Sally Beauty Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Sally Beauty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sally Beauty Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Sally Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Sally Beauty has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Sally Beauty has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from deadline.com: Regal Parent Cineworld Rounds Out Leadership Team Under CEO Eduardo Acuna
When determining whether Sally Beauty Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Sally Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Sally Beauty Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Sally Beauty Holdings Stock:
Check out Sally Beauty Backtesting, Sally Beauty Valuation, Sally Beauty Correlation, Sally Beauty Hype Analysis, Sally Beauty Volatility, Sally Beauty History as well as Sally Beauty Performance.
Note that the Sally Beauty Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Sally Beauty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Sally Stock analysis

When running Sally Beauty's price analysis, check to measure Sally Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sally Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of Sally Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sally Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sally Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sally Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Sally Beauty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sally Beauty. If investors know Sally will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sally Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.24)
Earnings Share
1.58
Revenue Per Share
34.591
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
Return On Assets
0.0723
The market value of Sally Beauty Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sally that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sally Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sally Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sally Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sally Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sally Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sally Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sally Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.