Vipshop Holdings Limited Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.03

VIPS Stock  USD 16.46  0.35  2.17%   
Vipshop Holdings' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Vipshop Holdings Limited. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Vipshop Holdings based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Vipshop Holdings Limited over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $16.0 is a CALL option contract on Vipshop Holdings' common stock with a strick price of 16.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 11:08:40 for $0.8 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.85, and an ask price of $0.95. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 42.09. View All Vipshop options

Closest to current price Vipshop long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Vipshop Holdings' future price is the expected price of Vipshop Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vipshop Holdings Limited performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Vipshop Holdings Backtesting, Vipshop Holdings Valuation, Vipshop Holdings Correlation, Vipshop Holdings Hype Analysis, Vipshop Holdings Volatility, Vipshop Holdings History as well as Vipshop Holdings Performance.
  
At this time, Vipshop Holdings' Price Earnings Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price Book Value Ratio is likely to gain to 1.88 in 2024, whereas Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to drop 5.30 in 2024. Please specify Vipshop Holdings' target price for which you would like Vipshop Holdings odds to be computed.

Vipshop Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 18.03

The tendency of Vipshop Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 18.03  or more in 90 days
 16.46 90 days 18.03 
nearly 4.38
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vipshop Holdings to move over $ 18.03  or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.38 (This Vipshop Holdings Limited probability density function shows the probability of Vipshop Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vipshop Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 16.46  and $ 18.03  at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.86 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 . This entails Vipshop Holdings Limited market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vipshop Holdings is expected to follow. Additionally Vipshop Holdings Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Vipshop Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vipshop Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vipshop Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vipshop Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.3016.3819.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.5917.6720.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
13.2216.3019.37
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.0418.7220.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vipshop Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vipshop Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vipshop Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vipshop Holdings.

Vipshop Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vipshop Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vipshop Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vipshop Holdings Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vipshop Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.13
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.14
σ
Overall volatility
0.89
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Vipshop Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vipshop Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vipshop Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vipshop Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Vipshop Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Vipshop Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Here is What to Know Beyond Why Vipshop Holdings Limited is a Trending Stock

Vipshop Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vipshop Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vipshop Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vipshop Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding693.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments23.5 B

Vipshop Holdings Technical Analysis

Vipshop Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vipshop Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vipshop Holdings Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vipshop Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vipshop Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

Vipshop Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Vipshop Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vipshop Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vipshop Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vipshop Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vipshop Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vipshop Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Vipshop Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Vipshop Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Here is What to Know Beyond Why Vipshop Holdings Limited is a Trending Stock
When determining whether Vipshop Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vipshop Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vipshop Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vipshop Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Vipshop Stock analysis

When running Vipshop Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Vipshop Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vipshop Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Vipshop Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vipshop Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vipshop Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vipshop Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vipshop Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vipshop Holdings. If investors know Vipshop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vipshop Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.461
Dividend Share
3.049
Earnings Share
2.02
Revenue Per Share
203.903
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.092
The market value of Vipshop Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vipshop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vipshop Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vipshop Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vipshop Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vipshop Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vipshop Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vipshop Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vipshop Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.