Altimmune Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| ALT Stock | USD 7.57 0.10 1.34% |
Altimmune | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Altimmune Company probability of financial unrest Analysis
Altimmune's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Altimmune Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 43% |
Most of Altimmune's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Altimmune is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Altimmune probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Altimmune odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Altimmune financial health.
Is Altimmune's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Altimmune. If investors know Altimmune will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Altimmune listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.66) | Revenue Per Share 0.008 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 180 | Return On Assets (0.25) | Return On Equity (0.47) |
The market value of Altimmune is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Altimmune that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Altimmune's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Altimmune's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Altimmune's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Altimmune's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Altimmune's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Altimmune is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Altimmune's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Altimmune Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Altimmune is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Altimmune Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Altimmune's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Altimmune's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Altimmune's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Altimmune has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 43.0%. This indicator is about the same for the Biotechnology average (which is currently at 43.29) sector and 21.59% lower than that of the Health Care industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 7.96% lower than that of the firm.
Altimmune Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Altimmune's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Altimmune could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Altimmune by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Altimmune is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
Altimmune Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.72) | (0.38) | (0.2) | (0.44) | (0.41) | (0.42) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.11 | 0.0334 | 0.0202 | (3.29E-4) | 0.002022 | 0.001921 | |
| Net Debt | (7.2M) | (114.1M) | (188.8M) | (110.0M) | (134.5M) | (127.8M) | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 3.9M | 12.0M | 18.3M | 17.1M | 12.1M | 21.2M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 4.6M | 7.2M | 1.5M | 4.6M | 4.4M | 4.7M | |
| Total Assets | 54.1M | 245.1M | 218.9M | 206.9M | 210.6M | 221.2M | |
| Total Current Assets | 39.4M | 230.3M | 204.1M | 192.8M | 209.5M | 220.0M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | (9.6M) | (34.4M) | (78.2M) | (62.6M) | (76.0M) | (72.2M) |
Altimmune Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.47 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.25 | ||||
| Operating Margin | (573.08) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 304.79 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 70.9 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.77 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 62.43 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 20.37 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | (1.66) X | ||||
| Price To Book | 2.92 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1,330 X | ||||
| Revenue | 426 K | ||||
| Gross Profit | (70.52 M) | ||||
| EBITDA | (83.03 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (88.45 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 184.76 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 3.81 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 671 K | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.01 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 14.12 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 2.75 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (76 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 4.79 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (1.66) X | ||||
| Target Price | 21.13 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 59 | ||||
| Beta | 0.059 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 491.24 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 210.64 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (466.33 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 197.48 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 13.9 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 10.49 M | ||||
| Year To Date Return | 1.67 % | ||||
| One Year Return | (6.49) % | ||||
| Three Year Return | (0.57) % | ||||
| Net Asset | 210.64 M | ||||
| Equity Positions Weight | 21.57 % | ||||
| Bond Positions Weight | 15.26 % |
About Altimmune Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Altimmune's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Altimmune using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Altimmune based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Altimmune Implied Volatility | 179.17 |
Altimmune's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Altimmune stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Altimmune's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Altimmune stock will not fluctuate a lot when Altimmune's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Altimmune in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Altimmune's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Altimmune options trading.
Pair Trading with Altimmune
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Altimmune position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Altimmune will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Altimmune Stock
| 0.65 | ACB | Aurora Cannabis Trending | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | CGC | Canopy Growth Corp Trending | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | ELYM | Eliem Therapeutics | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | XFOR | X4 Pharmaceuticals Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Altimmune could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Altimmune when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Altimmune - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Altimmune to buy it.
The correlation of Altimmune is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Altimmune moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Altimmune moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Altimmune can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Altimmune Piotroski F Score and Altimmune Altman Z Score analysis. For more information on how to buy Altimmune Stock please use our How to Invest in Altimmune guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Altimmune Stock analysis
When running Altimmune's price analysis, check to measure Altimmune's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Altimmune is operating at the current time. Most of Altimmune's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Altimmune's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Altimmune's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Altimmune to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Altimmune's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Altimmune. If investors know Altimmune will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Altimmune listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.66) | Revenue Per Share 0.008 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 180 | Return On Assets (0.25) | Return On Equity (0.47) |
The market value of Altimmune is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Altimmune that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Altimmune's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Altimmune's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Altimmune's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Altimmune's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Altimmune's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Altimmune is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Altimmune's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.