SPDR Portfolio Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

SP
SPIB -- USA Etf  

USD 36.12  0.05  0.14%

SPDR Portfolio Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SPDR Portfolio historical stock prices and determine the direction of SPDR Portfolio Intermediate future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SPDR Portfolio historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Portfolio to cross-verify your projections.

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A naive forecasting model for SPDR Portfolio is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SPDR Portfolio Intermediate value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

SPDR Portfolio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of June

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of SPDR Portfolio Intermediate on the next trading day is expected to be  35.52  with a mean absolute deviation of  0.28 , mean absolute percentage error of  0.23 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  16.98 
 35.52 

SPDR Portfolio Etf Forecast Pattern

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SPDR Portfolio Forecasted Value

Market Value
36.12
5th of June 2020
35.52
Expected Value
37.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6552
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2783
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0084
SAESum of the absolute errors16.9761
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of SPDR Portfolio Intermediate. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict SPDR Portfolio. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for SPDR Portfolio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPDR Portfolio Inter. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
34.5936.0737.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
33.8035.2836.76
Details

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Portfolio to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 stocks, funds, and etfs against different fundamentals.
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and condition page