Ultra Chip (Taiwan) Market Value
| 3141 Stock | TWD 89.20 3.00 3.48% |
| Symbol | Ultra |
Ultra Chip 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultra Chip's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultra Chip.
| 04/06/2024 |
| 05/06/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultra Chip on April 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultra Chip or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultra Chip over 30 days. Ultra Chip is related to or competes with Phison Electronics, Greatek Electronics, and Wafer Works. More
Ultra Chip Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultra Chip's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultra Chip upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.29 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.52) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.4 |
Ultra Chip Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultra Chip's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultra Chip's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultra Chip historical prices to predict the future Ultra Chip's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.26) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1088 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultra Chip's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultra Chip Backtested Returns
Ultra Chip owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0148, which indicates the firm had a -0.0148% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ultra Chip exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Ultra Chip's Coefficient Of Variation of (3,066), variance of 3.06, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.62, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ultra Chip are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ultra Chip is likely to outperform the market. Ultra Chip has an expected return of -0.0276%. Please make sure to validate Ultra Chip treynor ratio, potential upside, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Ultra Chip performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.19 |
Very weak predictability
Ultra Chip has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultra Chip time series from 6th of April 2024 to 21st of April 2024 and 21st of April 2024 to 6th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultra Chip price movement. The serial correlation of 0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Ultra Chip price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.22 |
Ultra Chip lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultra Chip stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultra Chip's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultra Chip returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultra Chip has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultra Chip regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultra Chip stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultra Chip stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultra Chip stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultra Chip Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultra Chip's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultra Chip stock have on its future price. Ultra Chip autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultra Chip autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultra Chip stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultra Chip.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Check out Ultra Chip Correlation, Ultra Chip Volatility and Ultra Chip Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ultra Chip. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Ultra Stock analysis
When running Ultra Chip's price analysis, check to measure Ultra Chip's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultra Chip is operating at the current time. Most of Ultra Chip's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultra Chip's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultra Chip's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultra Chip to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Ultra Chip technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.