Alcoa (Australia) Market Value
| AAI Stock | 45.83 1.29 2.90% |
| Symbol | Alcoa |
Alcoa 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alcoa's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alcoa.
| 04/20/2025 |
| 07/19/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alcoa on April 20, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alcoa or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alcoa over 90 days. Alcoa is related to or competes with Polymetals Resources, Pinnacle Investment, Sports Entertainment, Sandon Capital, Platinum Asia, and Flagship Investments. Alcoa is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange. More
Alcoa Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alcoa's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alcoa upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0524 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.5 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.13 |
Alcoa Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alcoa's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alcoa's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alcoa historical prices to predict the future Alcoa's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1081 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1638 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0632 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3516 |
Alcoa Backtested Returns
Alcoa appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Alcoa secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which signifies that the company had a 0.16 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Alcoa, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Alcoa's risk adjusted performance of 0.1081, and Mean Deviation of 1.87 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Alcoa holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.74, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Alcoa's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alcoa is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Alcoa's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Alcoa's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.74 |
Good predictability
Alcoa has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alcoa time series from 20th of April 2025 to 4th of June 2025 and 4th of June 2025 to 19th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alcoa price movement. The serial correlation of 0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Alcoa price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.48 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.47 |
Alcoa lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alcoa stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alcoa's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alcoa returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alcoa has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alcoa regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alcoa stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alcoa stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alcoa stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alcoa Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alcoa's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alcoa stock have on its future price. Alcoa autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alcoa autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alcoa stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alcoa.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Alcoa Stock Analysis
When running Alcoa's price analysis, check to measure Alcoa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.